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Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using Signal Preprocessing Technique and Evolutionary Support Vector Regression

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Abstract

Short-term wind speed prediction is beneficial to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization and reduce the cost of wind power generation. As a kind of the powerful artificial intelligent algorithms, support vector regression (SVR) has been successfully employed in solving forecasting problems. However, due to the intrinsic complexity and multi-patterns of wind speed fluctuations, it is regarded as one of the most challenging applications for wind speed prediction. To alleviate the influence of complexity and capture these different patterns, this study proposes a novel approach named SIE–WDA–GA–SVR for short-term wind speed prediction, which applies the seasonal information extraction (SIE) and wavelet decomposition algorithm (WDA) into hybrid model that integrates the genetic algorithm (GA) into SVR. First, the proposed approach uses SIE to decompose the original wind speed into seasonal and trend components, and the seasonal indices are calculated by SIE. Second, the proposed approach uses WDA to decompose the trend component into both the approximate and the detailed scales. Third, the proposed approach uses GA–SVR to forecast the approximated and detailed scales, respectively. Then, the prediction values of the trend component can be obtained by integrating the prediction values of the approximated scale into the prediction values of the detailed scale. By integrating the seasonal indices into the prediction values of trend component, we can obtain the final forecasting results of the original wind speed. Moreover, the partial autocorrelation function is used to determine the number of input dimension for the SVR, and the GA is used to select the parameters of the SVR. Four real wind speed datasets are used as test samples to verify the proposed approach. Experimental results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms other benchmark models in four statistical error measures, and can improve the forecasting accuracy of wind speed.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71501101), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No. BK20150928), the Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province (Grant No. 2015SJB063), the Qing Lan Project, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 1170011208, 91546117, and 61502242), the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 16ZDA047), the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST (S8113097001), the Project Funded by the Flagship Major Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, the Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and the Top-notch Academic Programs Project of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate and Weather Disasters Collaborative Innovation Center, School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jujie Wang

  2. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Yaning Li

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  1. Jujie Wang
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Correspondence to Jujie Wang.

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Wang, J., Li, Y. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using Signal Preprocessing Technique and Evolutionary Support Vector Regression. Neural Process Lett 48, 1043–1061 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11063-017-9766-4

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