Abstract
A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for comments and suggestions that helped to improve an earlier version of the manuscript. Furthermore, the authors would like to acknowledge the help of Carolin Rupieper in the mathematical investigation of the point patterns formed by the points of tropical cyclone genesis (see Sect. 2.2).
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Rumpf, J., Weindl, H., Höppe, P. et al. Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation. Nat Hazards 48, 383–398 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9