Abstract
Estimation of the probability distribution of extreme sea levels, for the present time and the next century, is discussed. Two approaches are described and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. The first approach is based on dynamics and uses a storm surge model forced by tides, winds and air pressure fields. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis of observed hourly sea level records using a new first-order Markov process that can capture non-Gaussian characteristics (such as skewness) in the non-tidal component of the observed sea level record. It is shown that both approaches can provide good estimates of present day flooding probabilities for regions with relatively strong tides. The limitations of both approaches in terms of assessing the effect of global sea level rise, glacial-isostatic adjustment of the land, and changes in the frequency and severity of storms and hurricanes, are illustrated using recent results for the Northwest Atlantic. Some sensitivity studies are carried out to transform uncertainty in climate change projections into uncertainties in the probability of coastal flooding.
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Acknowledgements
Thanks to Val Swail and the conference organizers for the invitation and support to attend the JCOMM surge meeting. Val Swail also provided the winds used in the 40-year surge hindcast. Thanks are also due to Richard Smith for providing insightful comments on Markov Chains, extremal indices and extremal analysis. KRT acknowledges financial support from the Natural Sciences and Environmental Research Council of Canada.
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Thompson, K.R., Bernier, N.B. & Chan, P. Extreme sea levels, coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada. Nat Hazards 51, 139–150 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9380-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9380-5