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A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico

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Abstract

Sediment-related disasters may cause high casualties and economic losses in mountainous zones. The occurrence of these natural hazards in developing countries, where recovery efforts usually exceed the available resources, brings to the fore the urgent need to develop rainfall criteria, in order to understand, mitigate and reduce to the barest minimum the adversities with the available data resources. Unfortunately, many restrictions are encountered in developing countries, for example in Mexico: historical rainfall information is difficult to access and if available, it is only on a daily basis, thereby, making rainfall criteria development almost impossible. Therefore, this research provides a disaster probability approach named interim zone using the relationship between the disaster occurrence and rainfall episodes, in order to be used as a rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. From the total rainfall data by rainfall episodes, we could establish an interim zone where 71.9 mm is the minimum amount of rainfall needed to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 112.6 mm is the amount of rainfall if exceeded makes the probability of disaster occurrence high. Using maximum intensity, the interim zone is within 57.7 mm/day as minimum value to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 83.6 mm/day as the amount high likely to cause a sediment-related disaster.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Forest and Biomaterials Science Division, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8502, Japan

    Laura Sanchez-Castillo

  2. Forest Environment Science Division, Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, Hakozaki 6-10-1, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka-shi, 812-8581, Japan

    Tetsuya Kubota

  3. Faculty of Forestry Sciences, Autonomous University of Nuevo Leon, Carretera Nacional km. 145, 67700, Linares, Nuevo León, Mexico

    Israel Cantú-Silva

  4. Faculty of Socio-Environmental Studies, Fukuoka Institute of Technology, 3-30-1 Wajiro-higashi, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, 811-0295, Japan

    Toshiyuki Moriyama

  5. Enviroment and Forestry Research and Development Institute of Makassar, Ministry of Environment and Forestry of Indonesia, Jalan Perintis Kemerdekaan, km 16, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90243, Indonesia

    Hasnawir

Authors
  1. Laura Sanchez-Castillo
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  2. Tetsuya Kubota
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  3. Israel Cantú-Silva
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  4. Toshiyuki Moriyama
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  5. Hasnawir
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Correspondence to Laura Sanchez-Castillo.

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Sanchez-Castillo, L., Kubota, T., Cantú-Silva, I. et al. A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. Nat Hazards 85, 1893–1906 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2669-2

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