Abstract
Concerns about population aging in Europe have occupied the attention of policy makers and demographers for over a decade. Some policy makers have proposed increased immigration to offset the aging of the population (i.e., replacement migration). However, demographers have estimated that a very high (and likely untenable) level of immigration would be required, and little is known about whether the national publics of Europe would support international migration as a potential solution to population aging. Using Eurobarometer data from 2006 and concurrent country-level measures from Eurostat, this study examines individual- and contextual-level factors related to public attitudes toward immigration as an effective solution to the problem of population aging in the current 27 member countries of the European Union. Results from multilevel logit analyses indicate that urban, university-educated, and childless individuals are consistently more likely than others to endorse replacement migration. Countries with more prosperous economies and proportionally fewer foreign-born residents also show more supportive attitudes. Such results echo research on anti-immigrant sentiment, suggesting considerable public resistance to population policies that might encourage large-scale immigration. At the same time, these findings show consistent patterns of endorsement despite demographers’ criticism of the concept of replacement migration and concerns about developing alternative long-term strategies.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
Considering that attitudes are mental constructs which “all swim around in the same heads” (Schuman 2000, p. 304), it is plausible to assume that attitudes about replacement migration are correlated with more general attitudes toward immigration. However, while the latter type may be informing and mingling with the first one in intricate ways, the two are not to be conflated, as it is entirely possible that an individual may simultaneously express pro-immigration views and show skepticism about immigration as a tenable demographic solution to offset the processes of population aging and decline.
Not only do more educated individuals face lesser direct competition from (and feel less threatened by) immigrants in their respective labor market niches, but it is also possible that they are more broad-minded and accepting of immigrants and immigration due to education’s liberalizing effect. They may also be more likely to read and follow the public discourse in the press regarding concerns about population aging and decline and replacement migration.
Specifically, the individuals who are the least accepting of immigrants and immigration are also those who are most likely to identify with or be supportive of right-wing ideologies and politics.
The high proportions of foreign nationals in these two Baltic countries should be interpreted from the framework of “citizenship struggles” within the ex-U.S.S.R. space (Brubaker 1992), specifically the exclusion of the Russian-speaking populations in these two states from Estonian/Latvian citizenship following the breakup of the Soviet federation.
Luxembourg is also a special case, considering its small territorial size and the large presence of foreign nationals employed by the EU and international institutions.
Although the Eurobarometer 66.3 survey was administered in 29 national settings, we excluded data from Croatia and Turkey from our analyses because the survey instruments used in these two countries had omitted the question on replacement migration that is at the center of this study.
The use of single-item measures in attitudinal research is generally criticized with regard to complex theoretical constructs. However, when the meaning of the construct is straightforward (Wanous et al. 1997), or in situations where a singular survey question is informative enough to be holistic (Youngblut and Casper 1993), measurement with a single item is appropriate.
These were as follows: “1 = tend to agree,” “2 = tend to disagree,” “3 = it depends (spontaneous),” and “4 = DK.”
Created from the following questionnaire item: “How old were you when you stopped full-time education?”
We use the formula proposed by Kreft and de Leeuw (1998) for the explained between-country variance: (unrestricted error − restricted error)/unrestricted error.
The value is calculated for 2006 in Purchasing Power Standards. The mean for EU-27 is 100 (Source: Eurostat).
References
Abernethy, V. D. (2001). Comment on Bermingham’s summary of the U.N.’s year 2000. Replacement migration, is it a solution to declining population and aging? Population and Environment, 22, 365–375.
Annan, K. (2004, January 29). Why Europe needs an immigration policy. Statement of the United Nations Secretary General. http://www.un.org/News/ossg/sg/stories/sg-29jan2004.htm. Accessed 12 October 2009.
Bermingham, J. R. (2001). Immigration: Not a solution to problems of population decline and aging. Population and Environment, 22, 355–363.
Bijak, J., Kupiszewska, D., & Kupiszewski, M. (2008). Replacement migration revisited: Simulations of the effects of selected population and labor market strategies for the aging Europe, 2002–2052. Population Research and Policy Review, 27, 321–342.
Bijak, J., Kupiszewska, D., Kupiszewski, M., Saczuk, K., & Kicinger, A. (2007). Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002–2052: Impact of international migration on population ageing. European Journal of Population, 23, 1–31.
Bouvier, L. F. (2001). Replacement migration: Is it a solution to declining and aging populations? Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 22(4), 377–381.
Brubaker, W. R. (1992). Citizenship struggles in Soviet successor states. International Migration Review, 26(2), 269–291.
Ceobanu, A. M. (2011). Usual suspects? Public views about immigrants’ impact on crime in European countries. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 52(1–2), 114–131.
Ceobanu, A. M., & Escandell, X. (2008). East is West? National feelings and anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe. Social Science Research, 37(4), 1147–1170.
Ceobanu, A. M., & Escandell, X. (2010). Comparative analyses of public attitudes toward immigrants and immigration using multinational survey data: A review of theories and research. Annual Review of Sociology, 36, 309–328.
Ceobanu, A. M., & Escandell, X. (2011). Paths to citizenship? Public views on the extension of rights to legal and second-generation immigrants in Europe. The British Journal of Sociology, 62(2), 221–240.
Coenders, M., & Scheepers, P. (2003). The effect of education on nationalism and ethnic exclusionism: An international comparison. Political Psychology, 24(2), 313–343.
Coleman, D. (2002). Replacement migration, or why everyone is going to have to live in Korea: A fable of our times from the United Nations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 357, 583–598.
Coleman, D. (2004a). Who’s afraid of low support ratios? An unofficial response from the UK to the UN population division report on replacement migration. Policy responses to population ageing and population decline. (Population Bulletin of the United Nations Special Issue Nos 44–45, pp. 288–329) New York, United Nations.
Coleman, D. (2004b). Europe at the crossroads—must Europe’s population and workforce depend on new immigration? In V. Iontzev (Ed.), International migration: ICOD + 10, scientific series “International migration of population: Russia and contemporary world” (Vol. 12, pp. 19–33). Moscow: Max.
Coleman, D. (2008). The demographic effects of international migration in Europe. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 24(3), 452–476.
Coleman, D., & Rowthorn, R. (2011). Who’s afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences. Population and Development Review, 37(Supplement), 217–248.
De Figueredo, R. J. P, Jr, & Elkins, Z. (2003). Are patriots bigots? An inquiry into the vices of in-group pride. American Journal of Political Science, 47(1), 171–188.
Dini, L. (2000, September 13). Statement by the minister of foreign affairs of Italy, the Hon. Lamberto Dini, to the 55th General Assembly of the United Nations. http://un.org/ga/webcast/statements/italyE.htm. Accessed 12 October 2009.
Espenshade, T. J. (1994). Can immigration slow U.S. population aging? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 13, 759–768.
Espenshade, T. J. (2001). ‘Replacement migration’ from the perspective of equilibrium stationary populations. Population and Environment, 22, 383–400.
Esveldt, I., Fokkema, T., & Miettinen, A. (2008). Anticipated impact of family policies on fertility behaviour among the childless and among one-child parents. People, Population Change and Policies. European Studies in Population, 16/1(Part VI), 369–390.
Eurostat. (2006). Statistical portal of the European Union. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat. Accessed 15 October 2009.
Eurostat. (2008). Demographic change: Challenge or opportunity? Eurostat yearbook 2008. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-CD-07-001-SPOT/EN/KS-CD-07-001-SPOT-EN.PDF. Accessed 14 March 2012.
Fetzer, J. (2000a). Public attitudes toward immigration in the United States, France and Germany. New York and Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Fetzer, J. (2000b). Economic self-interest or cultural marginality? Anti-immigration sentiment and nativist political movements in France, Germany and the USA. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 26(1), 5–23.
Fokkema, T., & Esveldt, I. (2008). Motivation to have children in Europe. People, Population Change and Policies. European Studies in Population, 16/1(Part III), 141–155.
Goldstein, J., Lutz, W., & Testa, M. R. (2003). The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe. Population Research and Policy Review, 22, 479–496.
Grant, L. (2001). ‘Replacement migration’: The U.N. Population Division on European population decline. Population and Environment, 22, 391–399.
Guo, G., & Zhao, H. (2000). Multilevel modeling for binary data. Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 441–462.
Hello, E., Scheepers, P., & Gijsberts, M. (2002). Education and ethnic prejudice in Europe: Explanations for cross-national variances in the educational effect on ethnic prejudice. Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research, 46(1), 5–24.
Herm, A. (2008). Recent migration trends: Citizens of EU-27 member states become ever more mobile while EU remains attractive to non-EU citizens. Eurostat, Statistics in Focus, 98/2008. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-SF-08-098/EN/KS-SF-08-098-EN.PDF. Accessed 14 March 2012.
Hjerm, M. (2001). Education, xenophobia and nationalism: A comparative analysis. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 27, 37–60.
Hjerm, M. (2007). Do numbers really count? Group threat theory revisited. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 33, 1253–1275.
Hox, J. J. (2002). Multilevel analysis: Techniques and applications. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Jackson, J. S., Brown, K. T., Brown, T. N., & Marks, B. (2001). Contemporary immigration policy orientations among dominant-group members in Western Europe. Journal of Social Issues, 57(3), 431–456.
Keely, C. B. (2001). Replacement migration: The wave of the future? International Migration, 39(6), 103–110.
Koropeckyj-Cox, T., & Pendell, G. (2007). The gender gap in attitudes about childlessness in the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 69, 899–915.
Kreft, Ita G. G., & de Leeuw, J. (1998). Introducing multilevel modeling. London and Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Kunovich, R. M. (2002). Social structural sources of anti-immigrant prejudice in Europe. International Journal of Sociology, 32(1), 39–57.
Lahav, G. (2004). Public opinion toward immigration in the European: Does it matter? Comparative Political Studies, 37, 1151–1183.
Liefbroer, A., & Merz, E-M. (2009). Report on analysis of ESS data on cross-national differences in perceived norms concerning fertility-related behaviour. Deliverable 6.16 Repro project. http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/repro/assets/docs/Norms_fertility-behaviour.pdf. Accessed April 14, 2010.
Livi Bacci, M. (2000). The population of Europe. Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
Luedtke, A. (2005). European integration, public opinion and immigration policies. European Union Politics, 6(1), 83–112.
Lutz, W., O’Neill, B. C., & Scherbov, S. (2003). Europe’s population at a turning point. Science, 299, 1991–1992.
Mayda, A. M. (2006). Who is against immigration? A cross-country investigation of individual attitudes towards immigrants. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(3), 510–530.
McLaren, L. M. (2003). Anti-immigrant prejudice in Europe: Contact, threat perception, and preferences for the exclusion of migrants. Social Forces, 81(3), 909–936.
Merz, E.-M., & Liefbroer, A. C. (2012). The attitudes toward voluntary childlessness in Europe: Cultural and institutional explanations. Journal of Marriage and Family, 74, 587–600.
Meyerson, F. A. B. (2001). Replacement migration: A questionable tactic for delaying the inevitable effects of fertility transition. Population and Environment, 22, 401–409.
Miettinen, A., Esveldt, I, & Fokkema, T. (2008). Family policies: Financial or institutional measures? Preferences of childless persons and one-child parents. People, Population Change and Policies. European Studies in Population, 16/1(Part VI), 347–367.
Pettigrew, T. F. (2000). Systematizing the predictors of prejudice. In D. O. Sears, J. Sidanius, & L. Bobo (Eds.), Racialized politics: The debate about racism in America (pp. 280–301). Chicago, IL, and London: University of Chicago Press.
Quillian, L. (1995). Prejudice as a response to perceived threat: Population composition and anti-immigrant and racial prejudice in Europe. American Sociological Review, 60(4), 586–611.
Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Saczuk, K. (2003). A development and critique of the concept of replacement migration. CEFMR Working Paper 4/2003. Warsaw, Poland: Central European Forum for Migration Research.
Scheepers, P., Gijsberts, M., & Coenders, M. (2002a). Ethnic exclusionism in European countries. Public opposition to civil rights for legal migrants as a response to perceived group threat. European Sociological Review, 18(1), 17–34.
Scheepers, P., Gijsberts, M., & Hello, E. (2002b). Religiosity and prejudice against ethnic minorities in Europe: Cross-national tests on a controversial relationship. Review of Religious Research, 43(3), 242–265.
Schneider, S. L. (2008). Anti-immigrant attitudes in Europe: Outgroup size and perceived ethnic threat. European Sociological Review, 24(1), 53–67.
Schuman, H. (2000). The perils of correlation, the lure of labels, and the beauty of negative results. In D. O. Sears, J. Sidanius, & L. Bobo (Eds.), Racialized politics: The debate about racism in America (pp. 302–323). Chicago, IL, and London: University of Chicago Press.
Semyonov, M., Raijman, R., & Gorodzeisky, A. (2006). The rise of anti-foreigner sentiment in European societies, 1988–2000. American Sociological Review, 71, 426–449.
Semyonov, M., Raijman, R., & Gorodzeisky, A. (2008). Foreigners’ impact on European societies: Public views in a cross-national comparative perspective. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 49, 5–29.
Sides, J., & Citrin, J. (2007). European opinion about immigration: The role of identities, interests and information. British Journal of Political Science, 37(3), 477–504.
Sniderman, P. M., Hagendoorn, L., & Prior, M. (2004). Predisposing factors and situational triggers: Exclusionary reactions toward immigrant minorities. American Political Science Review, 98(1), 35–49.
Snijders, T. A. B., & Bosker, R. J. (1999). Multilevel analysis: An introduction to basic and advanced multilevel modelling. London and Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Sobotka, T., & Testa, M. R. (2008). Attitudes and intentions toward childlessness in Europe. People, Population Change and Policies. European Studies in Population, 16/1(PartIII), 177–211.
Tarmann, A. (June 2000). The flap over replacement migration. Population Today. http://www.prb.org/Articles/2000/TheFlapOverReplacementMigration.aspx. Accessed on 23 October 2010.
Teitelbaum, M. S. (2004). The media marketplace for garbled demography. Population and Development Review, 30, 317–327.
Testa, M. R. (2006). Childbearing preferences and family issues in Europe. Special Eurobarometer 253/Wave 65.1-TNS Opinion & Social, European Commission. htpp://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/ReportESEMPLAAgeingandFertility20061027.pdf. Accessed 17 October 2009.
Testa, M. R. (2007). Childbearing preferences and family issues in Europe: Evidence from the Eurobarometer 2006 survey. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 357–379.
United Nations (U.N.). (2000). Replacement migration: Is it a solution to declining and ageing populations?. New York: United Nations Population Division.
Wanous, J. P., Reichers, A. E., & Hudy, M. J. (1997). Overall job satisfaction: How good are single-item measures? Journal of Applied Psychology, 82, 247–252.
Wilkes, R., Guppy, N., & Farris, L. (2008). “No thanks, we’re full”: Individual characteristics, national context, and changing attitudes toward immigration. International Migration Review, 42, 301–329.
Youngblut, J. M., & Casper, G. R. (1993). Single-item indicators in nursing research. Research in Nursing & Health, 16, 459–465.
Zimmermann, K. F. (1995). Tackling the European migration problem. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(2), 45–62.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ceobanu, A.M., Koropeckyj-Cox, T. Should International Migration Be Encouraged to Offset Population Aging? A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Attitudes in Europe. Popul Res Policy Rev 32, 261–284 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-012-9260-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-012-9260-7