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The Discrepancy Between Ideal and Actual Parity in Hong Kong: Fertility Desire, Intention, and Behavior

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Abstract

The total fertility rate of Hong Kong has remained below 1.3 children per woman for about three decades, but it is still unknown whether this ultra-low fertility is driven by a downward shift in people’s fertility desires, or by low fertility intention. This study investigates the fertility desires and fertility intentions of married women via a parity-specific approach, using data from the knowledge, attitude, and practice survey conducted in 2012. The results show that the average ideal parity has shifted to sub-replacement level, indicating that the “two-child family” ideal is waning. The logistic regressions show that the determinants of low fertility intentions vary across parities: marital life satisfaction, household income, and good communication with husbands regarding childbearing are positively associated with first-birth intentions; wives’ part-time work depresses second-birth intentions; wives’ full-time work and gender inequality in the division of housework are negatively associated with third-birth intentions. It is noteworthy that fertility desire has become a strong predictor of fertility intention—especially related to first and second births, independent of other socioeconomic factors. Motivations for childbearing and difficulties in childrearing also differ across actual parities. These results should be applicable to women in other high-income Asian countries. The formulation of any pronatalist policy in Hong Kong should consider these parity-specific differences to enhance its effectiveness.

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Fig. 1

Sources the estimate for 2012 is self-tabulation based on the sample of couple data from KAP 2012 (n = 1029); the estimates for 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007 were directly provided by The Family Planning Association of Hong Kong

Fig. 2

Sources the 14th Japanese National Fertility Survey in 2010; the 2012 National Survey on Fertility, Family Health and Welfare in Korea; the Marriage and Parenthood Study of Singapore in 2012; Women’s Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey of Taiwan in 2013; the sample of couple data from the 2012 KAP Survey of Hong Kong; the TFRs are available from the respective national statistical offices, and the TFR in Hong Kong is from Yip et al. (2015)

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful for the useful suggestions of the reviewers. This study was supported by the Strategic Public Policy Research Funding Scheme of Research Grant Council (SPPR-HKU-12). The data is made available by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong and the authors are grateful for the support of the Research Committee of the Knowledge, Attitude and Practice Surveys.

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  1. Department of Social Work and Social Administration, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong

    Mengni Chen & Paul S. F. Yip

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  1. Mengni Chen
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Correspondence to Paul S. F. Yip.

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Chen, M., Yip, P.S.F. The Discrepancy Between Ideal and Actual Parity in Hong Kong: Fertility Desire, Intention, and Behavior. Popul Res Policy Rev 36, 583–605 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-017-9433-5

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