Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Trends in Intentions to Remain Childless in the United States

  • Research Briefs
  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to describe population-level trends in intentions to remain childless (ITRC) among men and women in the United States in the first decades of the twenty-first century. We use a sample of 31,739 women and 24,524 men aged 18–44 from a cross-sectional and nationally representative survey, the National Survey of Family Growth. Our analyses utilize five of the survey's cycles: from 2002 through 2015–2017. Trends in the unadjusted proportions of men and women who report ITRC are presented, along with predicted probabilities of reporting ITRC from multivariate regressions. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the prevalence of ITRC increased in the general population of men and women in the United States as well as among the youngest adults aged 18–24. If ITRC are realized, permanent childlessness rates could increase in the near future, contributing to the ongoing fertility decline in the United States. Further analyses uncover similarities and differences in the ITRC trends and correlates between men and women. Increases in ITRC among women are connected to changes in the socio-demographic composition of the population but ITRC increases among men are not connected to population composition changes. In addition, a positive education gradient is observed in ITRC among women but not among men. These variations in ITRC prompt a call for further research into gender and intentions for childlessness.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Almeling, R. (2015). Reproduction. Annual Review of Sociology, 41, 423–442.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abma, J. C., & Martinez, G. M. (2006). Childlessness among older women in the United States: Trends and profiles. Journal of Marriage and Family, 68(4), 1045–1056.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berrington, A. (2004). Perpetual postponers? Women's, men’s and couple’s fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour. Population Trends, 117, 9–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blackstone, A., & Stewart, M. D. (2012). Choosing to be childfree: Research on the decision not to parent. Sociology Compass, 6(9), 718–727.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blair-Loy, M. (2005). Competing devotions: Career and family among women executives. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bumpass, L. L., & Raley, R. K. (1995). Redefining single-parent families: Cohabitation and changing family reality. Demography, 32(1), 97–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bumpass, L., & Lu, H. H. (2000). Trends in cohabitation and implications for children s family contexts in the United States. Population Studies, 54(1), 29–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brinton, M. C., Bueno, X., Oláh, L., & Hellum, M. (2018). Postindustrial fertility ideals, intentions, and gender inequality: A comparative qualitative analysis. Population and Development Review, 44(2), 281–309.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chancey, L., & Dumais, S. A. (2009). Voluntary childlessness in marriage and family textbooks, 1950–2000. Journal of Family History, 34(2), 206–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruggles, S., Genadek, K., Goeken, R., Grover, J., & Sobek, M. (2017). Integrated public use microdata series, current population survey: Version 4.0. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gauthier, A. H., Smeeding, T. M., & Furstenberg, F. F., Jr. (2004). Are parents investing less time in children? Trends in selected industrialized countries. Population and Development Review, 30(4), 647–672.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerson, K. (1985). Hard choices: How women decide about work, career, and motherhood. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerson, K. (2010). The unfinished revolution: Coming of age in a new era of gender, work, and family. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giddens, A. (1991). Modernity and self-identity: Self and society in the late modern age. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hagewen, K. J., & Morgan, S. P. (2005). Intended and ideal family size in the United States, 1970–2002. Population and Development Review, 31(3), 507–527.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton, B. E., Martin, J. A., Osterman, M. J. K., & Rossen, L. M. (2019). Births: Provisional data for 2018. Vital Statistics Rapid Release; no 7. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. May 2019.

  • Heaton, T. B., Jacobson, C. K., & Holland, K. (1999). Persistence and change in decisions to remain childless. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 61, 531–539.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hochschild, A. R. (1989). The second shift: Working parents and the revolution at home. New York: Viking.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacobson, C. K., & Heaton, T. B. (1991). Voluntary childlessness among American men and women in the late 1980's. Social Biology, 38(1–2), 79–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, S., & Bumpass, L. (2008). Cohabitation and children's living arrangements: New estimates from the United States. Demographic Research, 19, 1663.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kornrich, S., & Furstenberg, F. (2013). Investing in children: Changes in parental spending on children, 1972–2007. Demography, 50(1), 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kravdal, Ø., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2008). Changing relationships between education and fertility: A study of women and men born 1940 to 1964. American Sociological Review, 73(5), 854–873.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lesthaeghe, R., & Van de Kaa, D. J. (1986). Twee demografische transities (Two demographic transitions?). In: DJ. van de Kaa, R. Lesthaeghe (eds) Bevolking: groei en krimp.(Population: Growth and Decline), pp. 9–24. Deventer: Van Loghum Slaterus.

  • Lundquist, J. H., Budig, M. J., & Curtis, A. (2009). Race and childlessness in America, 1988–2002. Journal of Marriage and Family, 71(3), 741–755.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lunneborg, P. (1999). The chosen lives of childfree men. Contemporary Sociology, 30, 31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mathews, T.J. & Hamilton, B.E. (2016). Mean age of mothers is on the rise: United States, 2000–2014. NCHS data brief, no 232. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics.

  • Miettinen, A., & Szalma, I. (2014). Childlessness intentions and ideals in Europe. Finnish Yearbook of Population Research, 49, 31–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rovi, S. L. (1994). Taking ‘no’for an answer: Using negative reproductive intentions to study the childless/childfree. Population Research and Policy Review, 13(4), 343–365.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, C. L., & Siebens, J. (2012). Educational attainment in the United States: 2009. Population Characteristics. Current Population Reports. P20-566. US Census Bureau.

  • Rybińska, A., & Morgan, S. P. (2019). Childless expectations and childlessness over the life course. Social Forces, 94, 1571.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider, D. (2015). The great recession, fertility, and uncertainty: Evidence from the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 77(5), 1144–1156.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schoen, R., Kim, Y. J., Nathanson, C. A., Fields, J., & Astone, N. M. (1997). Why do Americans want children? Population and Development Review, 23, 333–358.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sweeney, M. M., & Raley, R. K. (2014). Race, ethnicity, and the changing context of childbearing in the United States. Annual Review of Sociology, 40, 539–558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Testa, M. R., Cavalli, L., & Rosina, A. (2014). The effect of couple disagreement about child-timing intentions: A parity-specific approach. Population and Development Review, 40(1), 31–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson, E. (1997). Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births. Demography, 34(3), 343–354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomson, E., McDonald, E., & Bumpass, L. L. (1990). Fertility desires and fertility: Hers, his, and theirs. Demography, 27(4), 579–588.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton, A., & Young-DeMarco, L. (1990s). Four decades of trends in attitudes toward family issues in the United States: The 1960s through the 1990s. Journal of Marriage and Family, 63(4), 1009–1037.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Traister, R. (2016). All the single ladies: Unmarried women and the rise of an independent nation. New York: Simon and Schuster.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van de Kaa, D. J. (1987). Europe's second demographic transition. Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–59.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The Author is grateful for comments on this paper to Kenneth A. Bollen, Yong Cai, Kathleen M. Harris, S. Philip Morgan, Lisa D. Pearce, and Katherine I. Tierney. Preliminary stages of this research were conducted during Author's stay at the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, which receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (P2C HD050924).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Duke Box 90539, Durham, NC, 27708, USA

    Anna Rybińska

Authors
  1. Anna Rybińska
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Anna Rybińska.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors confirm that there are no known conflicts of interest associated with this publication and there has been no significant financial support for this work that could have influenced its outcome.

Ethical Approval

We further confirm that no aspect of the work covered in this manuscript has involved either animals or human patients. The research covered in this manuscript was conducted solely using secondary data from publicly available sources.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 230 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Rybińska, A. Trends in Intentions to Remain Childless in the United States. Popul Res Policy Rev 40, 661–672 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09604-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-020-09604-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation