Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

An Empirical Water Budget Model As a Tool to Identify the Impact of Land-use Change in Stream Flow in Southeastern Australia

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In western Victoria, Australia the water table and lake level in the Glenelg-Hopkins catchment have been declining for the last 15 years, and this is attributed to either the low rainfall over this time and/or a substantial change in land use. Stream flow modelling was carried out using monthly empirical water balance model (modified tanh function together with double mass curve analysis), on 37 stream gauges to assess whether the impact of land use change could be detected by a change in the magnitude of the resulting runoff. The empirical hydrological model was able to distinguish impact of land use change on stream flow from the climatic variables. There were substantial decreases in stream flow in the 1970s–1980s, probably related to increasing livestock densities in the region. Furthermore, the methodology can be a powerful tool to monitor and evaluate the possible impacts of future land use changes. It can be concluded that the use of such empirical hydrological modelling greatly improves the ability to analyse the impact of land use on catchment runoff. The model is a practical tool that can be readily used for identifying and quantifying the effect of landuse changes on catchment for water resource decision-making, which could be hardly possible using the time consuming, data hungry and expensive physical process models available.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • ABS (2010) Australian Bureau of Statistics, http://www.abs.gov.au/

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration—Guidelines for computing crop water requirements—FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO—Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Bird PR (2002) The Hamilton region of south-western Victoria—a historical perspective of landscape, settlement, impacts on Aborigine occupants, flora, fauna, forestry and agriculture. Natural Resources and Environment Unpublished Report.

  • BOM (2010) Bureau of meteorology. http://www.bom.gov.au/. Accessed 19 June 2010

  • Bosch JM, Hewlett JD (1982) A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield and evapotranspiration. J Hydrol 55:3–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boughton WC (1966) A mathematical model for relating runoff to rainfall with daily data. Civil Eng. Trans., I.E. Aust. CE8 (1):83–97

  • Breuer L, JA H, Willems P, Bormann H, Bronstert A, Croke BFW, Frede HG, Gräff T, Hubrechts L, Jakeman AJ, Kite G, Lanini J, Leavesley G, Lettenmaier DP, Lindström G, Seibert J, Sivapalan M, Viney NR (2009) Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) I: Model intercomparison with current land use. Adv Water Resour 32(2):129–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Butterworth JA, Schulze RE, Simmonds LP, Moriarty P, Mugabe F (1999) Hydological processes and water resources management in a dryland environment. Long-term groundwater fluctuations due to variation in rainfall. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 3:345–352

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Callow JN, Smettem KRJ (2009) The effect of farm dams and constructed banks on hydrologic connectivity and runoff estimation in agricultural landscapes. Environ Model Softw 24(8):959–968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costa MH, Botta A, Cardille JA (2003) Effects of large scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia. J Hydrol 283 1(4):206–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dahlhaus P, Heislers D, Dyson PR (2002) Groundwater flow systems of the Glenelg hopkins catchment management authority area. Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority Report, 02/02

  • DCFLV (1985) Department of conservation, forests and lands Victoria. Summary of significant events—1984/85 Fire Season. Presented to the Australian Association of Rural Fire Authorities, Perth, 6–9 May 1985

  • DSE (2010) Department of sustainability and environment. Accessed in April 201. http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/dse/nrenfoe.nsf/childdocs/D79E4FB0C437E1B6CA256DA60008B9EF?open. Accessed 23 June 2010

  • Fenelon JM (2000) Quality assurance and analysis of water levels in wells on Pahute Mesa and vicinity, Nevada Test Site, Nye Country, Nevada. U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigation 00–4014

  • Gao P, Mu XM, Wang F, Li R (2011) Changes in stream flow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garden D (1984) Hamilton: A western district history. Hargreem publishing company, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Goss K (2001) Sustainable rivers and reforestation: Policy for their Co-existence in the Murray-Darling basin, plantations, farm forestry and water. Proceedings of a National Workshop, Melbourne, pp 58–62, Report no. 09/20

    Google Scholar 

  • Grayson RB, Argent RM, Nathan RJ, McMahon TA, Mein RG (1996) Hydrological recipes: Estimation techniques in Australian hydrology. Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology, Melbourne, 125 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Gunter B, Sandra A, Mike B, Manfred D, David G, Dieter G, David M, Bruno M, Paul S, Jan S (2007) At what scales do climate variability and land cover change impact on flooding and low flows? Hydrol processes 21:1241–1247. doi:10.1002/hyp.6669

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ierodiaconou D, Laurenson L, Leblanc M, Stagnitti F, Duff G, Salzman S (2004) Multi-temporal land use mapping using remotely sensed techniques and the integration of a pollutant load model in a GIS. GIS and Remote Sensing in Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment (Proceedings of ICGRHWE held at the Three Gorges Dam, China, September 2003). IAHS Publ. 289

  • Ierodiaconou D, Laurenson L, Leblanc M, Stagnitti F, Duff G, Salzman S, Versace V (2005) The consequences of land use change on nutrient exports: a regional scale assessment in south-west Victoria, Australia. J Environ Manage 74:305–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Institute for Land and Food Resources (2000) Socio-economic impact of changing land use in south-west Victoria. Institute for Land and Food Resources. Melbourne University, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackson S (1995) Livestock and livestock products Victoria, 1993–94. Australian Bureau of Statistics, catalogue number 7221.2. Canberra, Australia http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/free.nsf/0/CC95D432AA0EA827CA25722500073A0F/$File/72212_1993-94.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2010

  • Jeffrey SJ, Carter JO, Moodie KW, Beswick AR (2001) Using spatial interpolation to construct a comprehensive archive of Australian climate data. Environ Model Softw 16(4):309–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones RN, McMahon TA, Bowler JM (2001) Modelling historical lake levels and recent climate change at three closed lakes, Western Victoria, Australia (c.1840–1990). J Hydrol 246:159–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones R, Whetton P, Walsh K, Page C (2002) Future impacts of climate variability, climate change and land use change on water resources in the Murray-Darling Basin. Overview and Draft Program of Research, p. 27

  • Joyce EB, Webb JA (2003) Chapter 18: Geomorphology. In: Birch WD (ed) Geology of Victoria: 553–562, Geological Society of Australia special publication 23.

  • Kazemi GA (2012) Hydrogeology—A Global perspective. ISBN 978-953-51-0048-5. InTech publishing company, Rijeka, Croatia

  • Kiem AS, Vordon-Kidd DC (2010) Towards understanding hydroclimatic change in Victoria, Australia- preliminary insights into the ‘Big Dry’. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 14:433–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim HS, Croke BFW, Jakeman AJ, Chiew F (2010) An assessment of modelling capacity to identify the impacts of climate variability on catchment hydrology, Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (2010). doi:10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05.007

  • Kinal J, Stoneman GL (2012) Disconnection of groundwater from surface water causes a fundamental change in hydrology in a forested catchment in south-western Australia. J Hydrol 472–473:14–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laut P (1988) Changing pattern of land use in Australia. Division of Water and Land Resources, CSIRO. Australian Bureau of Statistics, catalogue number 1301.0. Canberra.http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/1301.0Feature%20Article131988?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=1301.0&issue=1988&num=&view=. Accessed 8 July 2012

  • Lorup JK, Refsgaard JC, Mazvimavi D (1998) Assessing the effect of land use change on catchment runoff by combined use of statistical tests and hydrological modelling: Case studies from Zimbabwe. J Hydrol 205:147–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahe G, Paturel J, Servat E, Conway D, Dezetter A (2005) The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso. J Hydrol 300:33–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Land and Water Resources Audit (2001) Australian Dryland Salinity Assessment 2000: Extent, Impacts, Processes, Monitoring and Management Options. Land and Water Australia, Canberra, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Neal BP, Nathan RJ, Schreider SY, Jakeman AJ (2002) Identifying the separate impact of farm dams and land use changes on catchment yield. Australian J Water Resour 5(2):165–175

    Google Scholar 

  • Petheram JR, Patterson A, Williams K, Jenkin B, Nettle RA (2000) Socio-economic impact of changing land use in South West Victoria: Main report to steering committee. Institute of Food and Land Resources. University of Melbourne, Parkville

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfister L, Kwadijk J, Musy A, Bronstert A, Hoffmann L (2004) Climate change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine- Meuse basins. River Res Appl 20:229–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raiber M, Webb JA (2008) Tectonic control of tertiary deposition in the Streatham deep-lead system in western Victoria. Aust J Earth Sci 55(4):493–508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scanlon BR, Jolly I, Sophocleous M, Zhang L (2007) Global impacts of conversions from natural to agricultural ecosystems on water resources: Quantity versus quality. Water Resour Res 43, W03437. doi:10.1029/2006WR005486

    Google Scholar 

  • Scanlon BR, Reedy RC, Stonestrom DA, Prudic DE, Dennehy KF (2005) Impact of land use and land cover change on groundwater recharge and quality in the southwestern U.S. Glob Chang Biol 11:1577–1593

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schade TG, Shuster WD (2005) Paired watershed study of land-use and climate change impact on small streams, in: W. Raymond (ed), ASCE, p. 484

  • Schreider SY, Jakeman AJ, Letcher RA, Nathan RJ, Neal BP, Beavis SG (2002) Detecting changes in stream flow response to changes in non-climatic catchment conditions: farm dam development in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. J hydrol 262:84–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siriwardena L, Finlayson BL, McMahon TA (2006) The impact of land use change on catchment hydrology in large catchments: The Comet River, Central Queensland, Australia. J Hydrol 326:199–214

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stonestrom DA, Scanlon BR, Zhang L (2009) Introduction to special section on impacts of land use change on water resources. Water Resour Res 45:W00A00. doi:10.1029/2009WR007937

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suppiah R, Collins D, Della-Marta P (2001) Observed changes in Australian climate. CSIRO Report

  • Tibby J, Tiller D (2007) Climate-water quality relationships in three Western Victorian (Australia) lakes 1983–2000. Hydrobiologia 591:219–234

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timms BV (2005) Salt lakes in Australia: Present problems and prognosis for the future. Hydrobiologia 552:1–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tweed S, Leblanc M (2006) An investigation of the risk to natural assets from groundwater salinisation, Iterative analysis for a regional recharge and discharge map. Monash and Deakin Universities and Glenelg-Hopkins Catchment Management Authority, Project: NAP272

  • Tweed S, Leblanc M, Webb J, Lubczynski M (2007) Remote sensing and GIS for mapping groundwater recharge and discharge areas in salinity prone catchments, south-eastern Australia. Hydrogeol J 15:75–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Lanen HAJ, Fendeková M, Kupczyk E, Kasprzyk A, Pokojski W (2004) Flow generating processes. In: Tallaksen, L.M. and van Lanen, H.A.J. (ed), Hydrological drought, Processes and Estimation Methods for Stream flow and Groundwater. Developments in Science 48:53–96

  • Versace V, Ierodiaconou D, Salzman S, Stagnitti F, Leblanc M, Boland A, Laurenson, L, March T, Thwaites L (2005) Multivariate modelling of land use on in-stream salinity over multiple spatial scales. In: Water Resources Management III. Wessex Institute of Technology, UK. Series: Progress in Water Resources, Vol 1. (ISBN: 1-84564-007-1)

  • Vertessy RA (2001) Impact of plantation forestry on catchment runoff, Plantations, Farm Forestry and Water, proceedings of a National Workshop, Melbourne, Australia. Report no. 01/20:9–19

  • VWDW (2010) Victorian Water Resources Data Warehouse. http://www.vicwaterdata.net. Accessed 17 May 2010

  • Wang S, Kang S, Zhang L, Li F (2008) Modelling hydrological response to different land-use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China. Hydrol Processes 22:2502–2510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waring EJ, Morris JG (1974) Usage of superphosphate on Australian pastures: An exploratory analysis. In: Quaternary Review of Agricultural economics, Vol. XXVII, no. 1, January 1974. Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Canberra, Australia

  • WatLUC (2005) Water and Land Use Change study. Stage 2 Community Report. Water and Land Use Study Steering Committee and Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM).

  • Weber K, Stewart M (2004) A critical analysis of the cumulative rainfall departure concept. Groundwater 42(6/7):935–938

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams WD (1995) Lake Corangamite, Australia, a permanent saline lake: conservation and management issues. Lakes and Reservoirs: Res Manage 1:55–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu JR, Zhang T, Yang J (1996) Analysis of rainfall-recharge relationship. J Hydrol 177:143–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Van Tonder G (2001) Estimation of recharge using a revised cumulative rainfall departure method. Water SA 27(3):341–343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yihdego Y, Webb JA (2011) Modeling of bore hydrograph to determine the impact of climate and land use change in western Victoria, Australia. Hydrogeol J 19(4):877–887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yihdego Y, Webb J (2012) Modelling of seasonal and long-term trends in lake salinity, South-western Victoria, Australia. J Environ Manage 112:149–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is a portion of the first author’s doctoral research conducted while at La Trobe University, Australia. Support was provided by the Glenelg–Hopkins Catchment Management Authority. Comments by Prof. C.W. Fetter improved this paper. We also acknowledge the comments and suggestions received from anonymous reviewers.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Geosciences, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, 3086, Australia

    Yohannes Yihdego & John Webb

  2. Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation (SMEC), Sydney, NSW, 2060, Australia

    Yohannes Yihdego

Authors
  1. Yohannes Yihdego
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. John Webb
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yohannes Yihdego.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOC 3596 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yihdego, Y., Webb, J. An Empirical Water Budget Model As a Tool to Identify the Impact of Land-use Change in Stream Flow in Southeastern Australia. Water Resour Manage 27, 4941–4958 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0449-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0449-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation