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Managing Water Resources Conflicts: Modelling Behavior in a Decision Tool

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Abstract

While technical tools for analysis of water resources systems have advanced, the major issue in resolving problems focuses on the interaction of human and natural systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has recently been used as an effective tool to develop integrated human-environmental models. One of the main challenges of ABM application in water resources management is to identify and characterize key agents. We provided recommendations to characterize agents normally involved in water decisions, and developed a framework for a conflict management tool, comprised of three models: a watershed simulation, an optimization, and a behavioral simulation model. The optimization-simulation model determined tradeoffs between the objective functions. The behavioral simulation model, developed based on ABM, simulated stakeholders interactions and their reactions to water allocation decisions. This model evaluated the applicability of different management scenarios to achieve specific rates of reduction in agricultural water allocations, selected from the tradeoffs. To develop and adjust this model, key stakeholders were identified in the San Joaquin River (SJR) watershed, California, and a survey was administered. The proposed recommendations and framework provides a new and innovative way to identify institutional interconnections, formulate and simulate their interactions, and create a hydrologic-environmental-human interface to support powerful decision-support tools to manage conflicts and make informed, practical decisions in water resources.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Colorado Water Institute, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1033, USA

    Masih Akhbari

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1372, USA

    Neil S. Grigg

Authors
  1. Masih Akhbari
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  2. Neil S. Grigg
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Correspondence to Masih Akhbari.

Appendix

Appendix

The objective function in Akhbari and Grigg 2014 was defined to maximize the outflow and minimize the salinity load to the Delta, while maximizing agricultural water allocations. Constraints were restricting excessive water allocation to agricultural fields and meeting environmental flow requirements. We determined the tradeoffs between these objectives using a genetic algorithm model, linked to a watershed simulation model. Then, we selected some tradeoff points for further investigations. Table 4 presents these points along with their corresponding values on the objective functions.

Table 4 Increased outflow, reduced salt load, and frequency of violations due to reduced agricultural allocations based on the selected points from tradeoffs
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Akhbari, M., Grigg, N.S. Managing Water Resources Conflicts: Modelling Behavior in a Decision Tool. Water Resour Manage 29, 5201–5216 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1113-9

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