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Modeling the impacts of global warming on predation and biotic resistance: mosquitoes, damselflies and avian malaria in Hawaii

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Abstract

Biotic resistance from native predators can play an important role in regulating or limiting exotic prey. We investigate how global warming potentially alters the strength and spatial extent of these predator–prey interactions in aquatic insect ecosystems. As a simple model system, we use rock pools in streams of rainforests of Hawaii, which contain the beautiful Hawaiian damselfly Megalagrion calliphya as predator and the invasive southern house mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus as prey. This abundant mosquito is the major vector of avian malaria transmission to native forest birds. We use mathematical modeling to evaluate the potential impacts of damselfly predation and temperature on mosquito population dynamics. We model this predator–prey system along an elevational gradient (749-1952 m elevation) and assess the effect of 1°C and 2°C climate warming scenarios as well as the effects of El Niño and La Niña oscillations, on predator–prey dynamics. Our results indicate that the strength of biotic resistance of native predators on invasive prey may decrease with increasing temperature because demographic rates of predator and prey are differentially affected by temperature. Future warming could therefore increase the abundance of invasive species by releasing them from predation pressure. If the invasive species is a disease vector, these shifts could increase the impact of disease on both humans and wildlife.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank JA Ahumada and F. de Castro for their contribution to the development of the mosquito model and F. de Castro for his help in the generation of daily temperature data for the Pahala watershed. We also thank MV Martinez for his help with the preparation of climate data files for the program ANUSPLIN. This project was supported by funding through the US Geological Survey Climate Change Research Initiative and additional funding through the Invasive Species and Terrestrial Wildlife Programs of the US Geological Survey. Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.

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  1. Peter H. F. Hobbelen

    Present address: Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

    Peter H. F. Hobbelen

  2. US Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

    Michael D. Samuel

  3. US Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Hawaii National Park, HI, USA

    David Foote, Lori Tango & Dennis A. LaPointe

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  1. Peter H. F. Hobbelen
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  2. Michael D. Samuel
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  5. Dennis A. LaPointe
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Correspondence to Peter H. F. Hobbelen.

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Hobbelen, P.H.F., Samuel, M.D., Foote, D. et al. Modeling the impacts of global warming on predation and biotic resistance: mosquitoes, damselflies and avian malaria in Hawaii. Theor Ecol 6, 31–44 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-011-0154-9

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