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The Global Gas Market: Modern Trends and Development Prospects

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Abstract

The current state of the global natural gas market, as well as regional aspects of gas production and consumption, are analyzed. Forecasts of the long-term development of the global market are presented, with a special focus on the countries of East and South Asia, where, according to long-term forecasts, gas demand will double by 2050, to 1092.6 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The environmental benefits of natural gas will support, but not determine, its role in certain markets, because the prospects for using gas in the power industry are determined primarily by its price. By 2050, China is expected to increase its consumption by almost 350 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 661 bcm, more than the countries of the European Union and the Middle East use today. The decisions already taken by the Chinese authorities will play a huge role in shaping global trends and may become a catalyst for the transition to “clean” energy. The scale of China’s renewable energy deployment and export of these technologies implies a low-carbon development path for the country.

During periods of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. To predict such situations in advance, experts analyze the evolution of energy markets, considering the consequences for Russia in their forecasts. However, almost all experts are not ready to specify the period in the foreseeable future of peak gas demand even for the world’s largest economies (except for the European Union and the developed countries of Asia).

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Notes

  1. A conversion factor was used of 1 billion cubic ft = 35.3 bcm.

  2. According to the Chinese gas industry development plan, by 2025 the total consumption of natural gas should reach 443.2 billion m3, and its share in the energy consumption structure should exceed 9%.

  3. By May 2012, all nuclear power plants in Japan were shut down for safety checks. In July 2012, two units were launched at the Ohi NPP, but in September 2013 they were stopped again. During 2014, not a single nuclear power unit operated in Japan. In August 2015, the 1st, and in October the 2nd power unit of the Sendai NPP was launched. In September 2016, the 3rd unit of the Ikata NPP was put into operation. In May–June 2017, the 3rd and 4th units of Takahama NPP were put into operation. In March–April 2018, the 3rd unit of the Genkai NPP and the 3rd unit of the Ohi NPP were launched. In June 2018, the 4th unit of the Genkai NPP was put into operation, and in June 2021, the 3rd unit of the Mihama NPP.

  4. The proven oil reserves of the Republic of Korea are insignificant (about 350 000 t) and are concentrated on the shelf of the Sea of Japan.

  5. The data is different from other sources of information. According to BP plc, at the end of 2020, proven coal reserves amounted to 111.1 billion tons, including coking, 5.1 billion tons, and energy, 106.0 billion tons. In terms of reserves, India ranks fifth in the world, and in terms of production, second after China.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    D. I. Kondratov

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  1. D. I. Kondratov
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Translated by B. Alekseev

Dmitrii Igorevich Kondratov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), is a Leading Researcher at the RAS Institute of Economics.

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Kondratov, D.I. The Global Gas Market: Modern Trends and Development Prospects. Her. Russ. Acad. Sci. 92, 188–198 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331622020022

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