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Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

Part 2: Models and Validation

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Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA

Abstract

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the General Circulation Model (GCM)-derived climate change projections, described in Part 1, to drive the crop production and water resource models EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) and HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States). These models are described and validated in this paper using historical crop yields and streamflow data in the conterminous United States in order to establish their ability to accurately simulate historical crop and water conditions and their capability to simulate crop and water response to the extreme climate conditions predicted by GCMs. EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields are compared with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and with yields from agricultural experiments. EPIC crop yields correspond more closely with USDA historical county yields than with the higher yields from intensively managed agricultural experiments. The HUMUS model was validated by comparing the simulated water yield from each hydrologic basin with estimates of natural streamflow made by the US Geological Survey. This comparison shows that the model is able to reproduce significant observed relationships and capture major trends in water resources timing and distribution across the country.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, 8400 Baltimore Ave. Suite 201, College Park, MD, 20740, USA

    Allison M. Thomson, Norman J. Rosenberg & R. Cesar Izaurralde

  2. Independent Project Analysis, 11150 Sunset Hills Rd. Suite 300, Reston, VA, 20190, USA

    Robert A. Brown

Authors
  1. Allison M. Thomson
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  2. Norman J. Rosenberg
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  3. R. Cesar Izaurralde
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  4. Robert A. Brown
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

    Norman J. Rosenberg  & James A. Edmonds  & 

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© 2005 Springer

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Thomson, A.M., Rosenberg, N.J., Izaurralde, R.C., Brown, R.A. (2005). Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment. In: Rosenberg, N.J., Edmonds, J.A. (eds) Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3876-3_3

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