Summary
The goal of this chapter is to describe the mechanism underlying the age-specific increase in death risk related to immunosenescence, to determine the cause-specific hazard rate as a function of immune system characteristics. A mathematical model that allows for the estimation of the age-specific risk of death caused by infectious diseases has been developed. The model consists of three compartments: (1) a model of immunosenescence, (2) a model of infectious disease, and (3) a model giving the relationship between disease severity and the risk of death. The proposed model makes it possible to analyze age-specific mortality from infectious diseases and to predict future changes in mortality due to public health activity. At the same time it can be used for individualized risk assessment.
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Sannikova, T.E. (2008). Analysis of Infectious Mortality by Means of the Individualized Risk Model. In: Deutsch, A., et al. Mathematical Modeling of Biological Systems, Volume II. Modeling and Simulation in Science, Engineering and Technology. Birkhäuser Boston. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-4556-4_15
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-8176-4556-4_15
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