Abstract
In Part I it was argued that the defence of the People’s Republic can be sustained by continued reliance on China’s traditional strengths — the two most obvious being those of large land mass and population. It was also argued that within the context of the people’s war philosophy that exploits these strengths, the most viable option for Chinese defence modernisation is pursuit of middle-range technology, employed in the complementary modes of professional guerilla warfare by elite forces and ‘swarm’ combat tactics by regular forces. The second part of this book will develop further these ideas by examining the effectiveness of such a policy in relation to threats or potential threats to China. Because this study is an investigation of people’s war under modern conditions as the vehicle for understanding emerging Chinese defence strategy, the purpose here is not simply to provide a general assessment of threat, but to interpret China’s strategic environment from the perspective of modern people’s war. In other words, how would a modern people’s war strategist view China’s strategic environment?
Trust in virtue, not walls.
Chinese minister, AD 280
He who excels at resolving difficulties does so before they arise. He who excels in conquering his enemies triumphs before threats materialise.
Sun Tzu, 350 BC1
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Notes and References
Sun Tzu, The Art of War (trans. Samuel B. Griffith), Oxford University Press, London, 1963, p. 77.
Speech by Mikhail Gorbachev in Vladivostok, 28 July 1986, reprinted in Ramesh Thakur and Carlyle A. Thayer (eds), The Soviet Union as an Asian Pacifzc Power: Implications of Gorbachev’s 1986 Vladivostok Initiative, Westview Press, Boulder and London, 1987, p. 201.
Roy Medvedev, China and the Superpowers (trans. Harold Shukman), Basil Blackwell, UK, 1986, p. 42.
Donald H. McMillen, The Ürümqi Military Region: Defence and Security in China’s West, Working Paper No. 50, SDSC, ANU, Canberra, 1982, D. 15.
Kenneth Hunt, ‘Sino-Soviet Theater Force Comparisons’, in Douglas T. Stuart and William T. Tow (eds), China, the Soviet Union, and the West - Strategic and Political Dimensions in the 1980s, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1982, p. 111.
An excellent investigation of Soviet writings on the campaign, and lessons drawn from it, is provided by Lilita I. Dzirkals, ‘Lightning War’ in Manchuria: Soviet Military Analysis of the 1945 Far East Campaign (P-5589), RAND Corp., Santa Monica, California, January 1976.
Nelson notes that the Wuhan MR (now absorbed into the Jinan MR) ‘serves as the strategic reserve area for the others ... presumably because of its central location, large industrial base, and good rail communications with the others’. (Harvey W. Nelson, The Chinese Military System: An Organizational Study of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, 2nd edn, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1981, p. 123.) During the Sino-Vietnamese border war of 1979, for example, main force units had been drawn from Wuhan, as well as Chengdu in the south and Fuzhou in the east (Hunt loc. cit., p. 107).
A.A. Sidorenko, The Offensive, Moscow, 1970, translated and published under the auspices of the United States Air Force, US Government Printing Office, Washington, D301.79:1, p. 62.
P.H. Vigor, Soviet Blitzkrieg Theory, Macmillan, London, 1983, p. 9.
The problems associated with inferring Soviet military behaviour from doctrine are clearly addressed by Benjamin S. Lambeth, ‘How to Think about Soviet Military Doctrine’, in John Baylis and Gerald Segal (eds), Soviet Strategy, Croom Helm, London, 1981, pp. 105–23.
Donald Mercer, The Warsaw Pact Short Warning Nuclear Attack: How Viable an Option, US Army Russian Institute, APO, New York, 1979.
A.C. Hallett, ‘Chemical Warfare: Developments and Implications’, RUSI/Brassey’s Defence Yearbook 1987, Brassey’s Defence Publishers, London, 1987, p. 121.
cited by Lee Ngok, ‘Defending China: Chinese Air Land Battle - An Application of People’s War Under Modern Conditions’, conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Biennial Conference, University of Sydney, May 1986, p. 8.
William V. Kennedy, ‘The Perceived Threat to China’s Future’, in Ray Bonds (ed.), The Chinese War Machine: A Technical Analysis of the Strategy and Weapons of the People’s Republic of China, Salamander Books, London, 1979, p. 178.
See Pierre Gallois and John Train, ‘When a Nuclear Strike is Think-able’, The Asian Wall Street Journal, 26 March 1984, p. 6.
Richard E. Simpkin, Race to the Swift: Thoughts on Twenty-First Century Warfare, Brassey’s Defence Publishers, London, 1985, p. 74.
Frederick H. Hartmann, ‘The Strategic Triangle: China, Russia, and the United States’, in Rethinking US Security Policy for the 1980s, Proceedings of the 7th Annual Security Affairs Conference, Washington. 1980. v. 20.
J.R. Frisch (ed.), Energy 2000–2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses (trans. P. Ruttley), Report of World Energy Conference 1983, Graham & Trotman. London, 1983, v. 52.
Bohdan O. Szuprowicz, How to Avoid Strategic Materials Shortages: Dealing with Cartels, Embargoes, and Supply Disruptions, Wiley-Interscience, New York, 1981, pp. 56–7.
Liu Guoguang, Liang Wensen, et al. (comp.), China’s Economy in 2000, New World Press, Beijing, 1987, p. 406.
Valery Lutsenko, a high-ranking official of the Soviet Far East, quoted in Peter Ellingsen, ‘Vladivostok to be Used as Test for Economic Glasnost’, The Age, 3 October 1988, p. 8.
Ren Tao and Pang Yongjie, ‘Can the Goal for A.D. 2000 Be Reached?’, in Su Wenning (ed.), Modernization - the Chinese Way, Beijing Review Special Features Series. PRC. 1983. n. 40.
During the period 1965–84, the area under+irrigation increased from 33 to 45 million hectares, and chemical fertiliser usage increased from 2 to 18 million tons. (State Statistical Bureau, Chinese Government, cited in New Internationalist, April 1987, p. 17.)
Lucian W. Pye, China: An Introduction, 2nd edn, Little, Brown & Co., Boston and Toronto, 1978, pp. 118–19.
For the historical background to Sino-Vietnamese relations, see also Keith Weller Taylor, The Birth of Vietnam, University of California Press, USA, 1983. For example, Taylor observes: Sino-Vietnamese relations have traditionally been expressed in terms of vassalage. Only in recent years have the Chinese and Vietnamese begun to speak of their relationship in terms of theoretical equality. Making this new relationship effective will require a large adjustment in the view each nation has historically had of the other. Chinese pressure of any kind is instinctively felt by the Vietnamese as a threat to their national survival. On the other hand, the assertion by Vietnam of its national interests other than in deference to Chinese policies is instinctively felt by the Chinese as impertinence bordering on insubordination. Perhaps an inevitable result of the difference in size between the two countries, these feelings lie at the root of Sino-Vietnamese relations today as they did two thousand years ago. (p. 297)
Vu Can, ‘Vietnam Face to Face with Chinese Aggression’, in Chinese Aggression Against Vietnam: Dossier, Vietnam Courier, Hanoi, 1979, pp. 34–5.
US Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, The Third U.N. Law of the Sea Conference, Washington DC, 5 February 1975, p. 3,
quoted in Guy J. Pauker, ‘The Security Implications of Regional Energy and Natural Resource Exploration’, in Richard H. Solomon (ed.), Asian Security in the 1980s: Problems and Policies for a Time of Transition (a RAND Corp. Research Study), 2nd edn, Oelgeschlager, Gunn & Hain, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1980, p. 231.
Jan S. Breemer, ‘U.S.-Chinese Cooperation: The Naval Dimension’, Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute [hereafter, Proceedings], February 1983, p. 75.
Charles McGregor, The Sino-Vietnamese Relationship and the Soviet Union, Adelphi Paper No. 232, IISS, Autumn, 1988, p. 18.
B.P. Mahony, ‘Sino-Vietnamese Security Issues: Second Lesson Versus Stalemate’, conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Biennial Conference, University of Sydney. May 1986, p. 19.
Martin L. Lasater and L.J. Lamb, ‘Taiwan: Deterrence to Remain Unchanged’, Pacific Defence Reporter, June 1985, p. 37.
Ian Wilson, ‘North Korea and Security Problems in Northeast Asia’, conference paper, Asian Studies Association of Australia Sixth National Conference, Sydney, 12–16 May 1986, pp. 3–4.
Michael Sadykiewicz, ‘The Geostrategic Role of Korea in the Soviet Military Doctrine’, Asian Perspective (Seoul), Spring/Summer 1983,
This dilemma was expressed, for instance, by John Hackett, The Third World War: The Untold Story, Macmillan, New York, 1982, p. 296; and ‘A Walk on the Wild Side’, Asiaweek, 23 March 1984, p. 5.
Adm. Ronald J. Hays, US Commander-in-Chief, Pacific, in an interview with Denis Warner, ‘View from the Top’, Pacific Defence Re porter, August 1987, p. 11.
Judith Rees, Natural Resources: Allocation, Economies and Policy, Methuen, New York, 1985, p. 192.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 1990 Rosita Dellios
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Dellios, R. (1990). ‘The Kingdom in the Middle’: Threats to China. In: Modern Chinese Defence Strategy. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11049-0_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-11049-0_5
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-11051-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-11049-0
eBook Packages: Palgrave Political & Intern. Studies CollectionPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)