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Fitting Autoregreesive Models for Prediction

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Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike

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Abstract

This is a preliminary report on a newly developed simple and practical procedure of statistical identification of predictors by using autoregressive models. The use of autoregressive representation of a stationary time series (or the innovations approach) in the analysis of time series has recently been attracting attentions of many research workers and it is expected that this time domain approach will give answers to many problems, such as the identification of noisy feedback systems, which could not be solved by the direct application of frequency domain approach [1], [2], [3], [9].

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References

  1. H. Akaike, “Some problems in the application of the cross-spectral method,” Spectral Analysis of Time Series (ed. B. Harris ), New York, John Wiley, (1967), 81–107.

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  2. H. Akaike, “ On the use of a linear model for the identification of feedback systems,” Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 20 (1968), 425–439.

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  3. H. Akaike, “A method of statistical identification of discrete time parameter linear system,” Ann. Inst. Statist. Math., 21 (1969), 225–242.

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  4. T. W. Anderson, “Determination of the order of dependence in normally distributed time series,” Time Series Analysis (ed. M. Rosenblatt ), New York, John Wiley, (1963), 425–446.

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  5. R. B. Blackman and J. W. Tukey, The Measurement of Power Spectra, New York, Dover, 1959.

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  6. J. Durbin, “ Efficient estimation of parameters in moving-average models,” Biometrika, 46 (1959), 306–316.

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  7. J. Durbin, “The fitting of time series models,” Rev. Int. Statist. Inst.,28 (1960), 233–243.

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  8. E. Parzen, “ Statistical spectral analysis (single channel case) in 1968,” Stanford University Statistics Department Technical Report, No. 11, June 10, (1968), 44 pages.

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  9. E. Parzen, “ Multiple time series modelling,” Stanford University Statistics Department Technical Report, No. 12, July 8, (1968), 38 pages.

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© 1998 Springer Science+Business Media New York

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Akaike, H. (1998). Fitting Autoregreesive Models for Prediction. In: Parzen, E., Tanabe, K., Kitagawa, G. (eds) Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1694-0_10

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1694-0_10

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4612-7248-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-1694-0

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