Using the Model for Prediction

Abstract

The Lake Dillon Model was applied to eight different scenarios considered to encompass the range of possibilities that might be realized over the next 20–25 years. The scenarios comprise five sets of assumptions for development and land use, each of which was applied to hydrologic assumptions for a dry year and for a wet year. Predictions in each case include the total loading of the lake, the source distribution of the loading, and the response of the lake to the predicted amount of loading. The dry-year hydrologic conditions were always set identical to 1981, and the wet-year conditions were set identical to 1982. Use of the hydrologic conditions of 1981 and 1982 is advantageous since the behavior of the lake in these 2 years under present land use is well documented and can thus be compared easily to future years of similar hydrologic conditions but very different land uses.