Abstract
The foregoing discussions have focused on information and processes needed to model global vegetation change. In this chapter, we discuss the models and modeling approaches that will be useful in analyzing responses of vegetation to large-scale environmental changes. We emphasize changing climate, but the concepts and approaches are pertinent to other global changes as well. First, we summarize the natural processes that dictate vegetation dynamics under changing environmental conditions. Models that relate natural vegetation distribution to climate are then described. These can be purely correlative—based on observed relationships between vegetation and climate—or more mechanistic, based on the physiological limits of different types of plants. To simulate transient responses, we need dynamic models that mechanistically represent community processes including competition. We summarize a class of such models that are suited to small landscape or patch analysis. We conclude by outlining a scheme for applying these models in large-scale studies by a Monte Carlo method that incorporates stochastic processes within the landscape and samples spatial variability in the environment.
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Prentice, I.C., Monserud, R.A., Smith, T.M., Emanuel, W.R. (1993). Modeling Large-Scale Vegetation Dynamics. In: Solomon, A.M., Shugart, H.H. (eds) Vegetation Dynamics & Global Change. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-2816-6_12
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