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Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Magnitude Between Mw = 4 and Mw = 5 for Turkey

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Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction (ITDRR 2017)

Part of the book series: IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology ((IFIPAICT,volume 516))

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Abstract

Earthquake is a type of disaster that occurs suddenly in different magnitudes. When magnitude of an earthquake increases it is expected that the effects are much more. Earthquakes in varying magnitude between 4 Mw and 5 Mw cause uneasiness among the public even if they do not cause heavy damage. The aim of this study is to estimate the probability of an earthquake between 4.0 and 5.0 by using artificial neural network model. Monthly real data between 2006 and 2015 is used for the model. Data is analyzed in MATLAB neural network tool, then estimated output value obtained via analysis and output of test value is compared with regression equation. Besides, seasonal effects on magnitude of earthquake are examined. Results show that 90.51% of the earthquake probability between 4.0 and 5.0 can be estimated by using artificial neural network model.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Industrial Engineering, Gaziantep University, 27310, Gaziantep, Turkey

    Türkay Dereli & Nazmiye Çelik

  2. Iskenderun Technical University, 31200, İskenderun, Hatay, Turkey

    Türkay Dereli

  3. Adana Alparslan Türkes Science and Technology University, 01250, Adana, Turkey

    Cihan Çetinkaya

Authors
  1. Türkay Dereli
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  2. Cihan Çetinkaya
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  3. Nazmiye Çelik
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nazmiye Çelik .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Tsuda University, Tokyo, Japan

    Yuko Murayama

  2. University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Dimiter Velev

  3. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Plamena Zlateva

Appendices

Appendix 1 (Numbers of Earthquakes in Different Magnitudes Between 2006 and 2015)

figure a

Appendix 2

figure b

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Dereli, T., Çetinkaya, C., Çelik, N. (2019). Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Magnitude Between Mw = 4 and Mw = 5 for Turkey. In: Murayama, Y., Velev, D., Zlateva, P. (eds) Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. ITDRR 2017. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol 516. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18293-9_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18293-9_9

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-030-18292-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-030-18293-9

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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