Abstract
This paper presents methods for predicting the effect of staffing policies on the age distribution of employees in a Public Service workforce. It describes deterministic models based on the application of rates of personnel flows to workforce segments. The models are refinements of previously published work where attrition among recruits had not been considered. A first model works by solving a system of linear equations describing personnel flows to obtain the workforce’s age profile at equilibrium. A second model determines the age profile trajectory by iterating over successive future years. Models are compared and validated with historical data. Furthermore, we investigate different measurements of past attrition rates for use with the models.
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Notes
- 1.
In 2013, immediate annuity eligibility was increased to 60 with 30 years of service, or otherwise 65, but the vast majority of DSs eligible to retire at the time of writing were grandfathered into the pre-2013 rules.
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Vincent, E., Boyd, P. (2020). Modelling Alternative Staffing Scenarios for Workforce Rejuvenation. In: Parlier, G., Liberatore, F., Demange, M. (eds) Operations Research and Enterprise Systems. ICORES 2019. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1162. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37584-3_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37584-3_5
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