Abstract
The paper predicts the functional state of the main part of the road network of the Magadan region with a total length of 1219.3 km in the conditions of climate warming up to 2°. It is shown that in this scenario of climate changes, the road network as a whole will retain its functionality, with an expected decrease in throughput on individual network fragments. To assess the risks of reduced functionality, we performed simulations of the temperature regime of permafrost at the base of the road, determining the maximum depth of its thawing and the amount of sediment of thawing soil, which manifests as numerous randomly located defects on the surface of the road profile. Since modeling of the soil temperature regime is a computationally time-consuming procedure, it was performed only in individual reference points – points of systematic observations of the climate, for which there were arrays of long-term values of climate parameters. Based on the modeling results, the value of the climate risk for reference points was determined, reduced to a range from 0 to 1000 points (the maximum risk value corresponded to the complete impossibility of continuing operation of the road), and the response surface for the risk was constructed as a function of the coordinates of an arbitrary point. The reference road network was divided into 1602 sections, for each of which the response surface was used to determine the climate risk. There were considered 4 types of soil possible for the foundation of the highway, for each of them a separate response surface was built.
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Yakubovich, A., Yakubovich, I. (2021). Using the Response Surface to Assess the Reliability of the Russian Cryolithozone Road Network in a Warming Climate. In: Murgul, V., Pukhkal, V. (eds) International Scientific Conference Energy Management of Municipal Facilities and Sustainable Energy Technologies EMMFT 2019. EMMFT 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1258. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57450-5_42
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-57450-5_42
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