Abstract
A hybrid methodology that combines qualitative and quantitative analytical techniques is discussed in the context of Cyber-enabled Influence Operations (CIOs). Beginning with primary inputs from detailed qualitative analyses of political, economic, social, technological, and legal ground realities, our Game-Transformation-based Framework uses 2 × 2 games - with ordinal rankings of preferences as payoffs - to attain a macro-level perspective. Using the periodic table of 2 × 2 games, we show how payoff swaps, which represent shifts in ground realities, can change the nature of the game and therefore the resulting equilibrium. Our framework’s exploration of various permutations, that hypothetical changes in input might lead to, can be used by analysts and policymakers to reverse-engineer favorable scenarios. The framework is useful for scenario planning as it allows for both detailed micro-level analyses and strategic macro-level analyses.
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This material, in part, is based on research sponsored by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (OASD (R&E)) under agreement number FAB750-15-2-0120. The U.S. Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation thereon. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (OASD (R&E)) or the U.S. Government.
This material, in part, is based on research sponsored by the NATO Innovation Hub under ODURF Project Number 600225-01. The views and conclusions contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of the NATO Innovation Hub or of any other NATO entity.
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Nandakumar, G.S., Padilla, J. (2020). A Game-Transformation-Based Framework to Understand Initial Conditions and Outcomes in the Context of Cyber-Enabled Influence Operations (CIOs). In: Thomson, R., Bisgin, H., Dancy, C., Hyder, A., Hussain, M. (eds) Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Modeling. SBP-BRiMS 2020. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 12268. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61255-9_28
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61255-9_28
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