Abstract
This paper tests the forecasting and trading performance of popular linear and non-linear forecasting models in predicting spot and forward freight rates in the dirty tanker shipping market. Maritime forecasting studies using neural networks are rare and only focus on spot rates. We build on former investigations, but we extend our study on freight rates derivatives. Our conclusion is, that non-linear methods like neural networks are suitable for short-term forecasting and trading freight rates, as their results match or improve on those of other models.
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von Spreckelsen, C., von Mettenheim, HJ., Breitner, M.H. (2014). Spot and Freight Rate Futures in the Tanker Shipping Market: Short-Term Forecasting with Linear and Non-Linear Methods. In: Helber, S., et al. Operations Research Proceedings 2012. Operations Research Proceedings. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_36
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00795-3_36
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