Abstract
Understanding the driving forces of historical land-use change can provide insights about the pressures experienced in present-day landscapes. This study develops a model to examine the spatio-temporal land-use changes and population responses of early agricultural communities under a variety of environmental and cultural conditions. Complex systems theory and geographical information systems (GIS) are integrated into the design of the model. The resulting Early Agricultural Resources and Land-use Investigation (EARLI) model couples agent-based modeling (ABM) and cellular automata (CA) techniques within a GIS framework. The model examines how both cultural and environmental factors influence land use change under multiple scenarios. Results from the simulations provide new insights that range from analysis of the interaction of human behavior within the local environment to the archaeological record.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Amedeo, D., Golledge, R., Stimson, R.: Person Environment Behavior Research: Investigating Activities and Experiences in Spaces and Environments. Guildford Press, New York (2009)
An, L., Linderman, M., Qi, J., Shortridge, A., Liu, J.: Exploring complexity in a human-environment system: An agent-based spatial model for multidisciplinary and multiscale integration. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 95, 54–79 (2005)
Araus, J.L., Slafer, G.A., Romagosa, I., Molist, M.: FOCUS: Estimated wheat yields during the emergence of agriculture based on the carbon isotope discrimination of grains: Evidence from a 10th millennium BP site on the euphrates. J. Archaeol. Sci. 28, 341–350 (2001)
Baltzer, H., Brown, P.W., Kohler, T.: Cellular automata models for. Environ. Plann. B 21, 531–548 (1998)
Batty, M., Xie, Y.: From cells to cities. Environ. Plann. B 21, S31–S48 (1994)
Bellwood, P.: The First Farmers : Origins of Agricultural Societies. Blackwell Pub, Oxford (2005)
Benenson, I., Torrens, P.: Geosimulation : Automata-Based Modeling of Urban Phenomena. Wiley, London (2004)
Bevan, A., Conolly, J.: GIS, archaeological survey, and landscape archaeology on the Island of Kythera, Greece. J. Field. Archaeol. 29, 123–138 (2002)
Bharwani, S.: Understanding complex behavior and decision making using ethnographic knowledge elicitation tools (KnETs). Soc. Sci. Comput. Rev. 24, 78–105 (2006)
Bogucki, P.: Neolithic dispersals in riverine interior central europe. In: Ammerman, A., Biagi, P. (eds.) The Widening Harvest. Archaeological Institute of America, Boston (2003)
Brown, D.G., Riolo, R., Robinson, D.T., North, M., Rand, W.: Spatial process and data models: toward integration of agent-based models and GIS. J. Geog. Syst. 7, 24–47 (2005)
Burnham, B.O.: Markov intertemporal land use simulation model. Southern J. Agr. Econ. 5, 253–258 (1973)
Butler, E.A.: Sustainable agriculture in a harsh environment: An Ethiopian Perspective. In: Hassan, F. (ed.) Droughts, Food and Culture: Ecological Change and Food Security in Africa’s Later Prehistory. Kluwer Academic, New York (2002)
Carver, S.: Integrating multi-criteria evaluation with geographical information systems. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 5, 321–339 (1991)
Chamberlain, A.: Human Remains. British Museum Press, London (1994)
Clarke Labs. IDRISI GIS and Image Processing Software. http://www.idrisi.com (2006). Accessed 12 Aug 2006
Clarke, D.: Analytical Archaeology. Methuen & Co Ltd, London (1968)
Crosetto, M., Tarantola, S., Saltelli, A.: Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in spatial modeling based on GIS. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ. 81, 71–79 (2000)
D’Andrea, A.C., Lyons, D.E., Haile, M., Butler, E.A.: Ethnoarchaeological approaches to the study of prehistoric agriculture in the ethiopian highlands. In: Van der Veen, M. (ed.) The Exploitation of Plant Resources in Ancient Africa. Kluwer Academic, New York (1999)
Davies, A.L.: Upland agriculture and environmental risk: a new model of upland land-use based on high spatial-resolution palynological data from West Affric, NW Scotland. J. Archaeol. Sci. 34, 2053–2063 (2007)
Deadman, P., Brown, R.D., Gimblett, H.R.: Modelling rural residential settlement patterns with cellular automata. J. Environ. Manage. 37, 147–160 (1993)
Dean, J.S., Gumerman, G.J., Epstein, J.M., Axtell, R.L., Swedlund, A.C., Parker, M.T., McCarroll, S.: Understanding anasazi culture change through agent -based modeling. In: Kohler, T., Gumerman, G.J. (eds.) Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2000)
Dennel, R.W.: The origin of crop agriculture in europe. In: Cowan, C.W., Watson, P.J. (eds.) The Origins of Agriculture. Smithsonian Institution Press, Washington (1992)
Dhavalikar, M.: The First Farmers of the Deccan. Ravish Publishers, Pune (1988)
Dickson, D.B.: Ancient agriculture and population at tikal, Guatemala—an application of linear-programming to the simulation of an archaeological problem. Am. Antiquity 45, 697–712 (1980)
Dragićević, S., Marceau, D.J.: A fuzzy set approach for modeling time in GIS. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 14, 225–245 (2000)
Eastman, J.R., Jin, W., Kyem, P.A.K., Toledano, J.: Raster procedures for multi-criteria/multi-objective decisions. Photogramm. Eng. Remote Sens. 61, 539–547 (1995)
Fedick, S.L.: Land evaluation and ancient maya land use in the Upper Belize River area, Belize, Central America. Lat. Am. Anitq. 6, 16–34 (1995)
Fischer, M.D.: Culture and indigenous knowledge systems: emergent order and the internal regulation of shared symbolic systems. Cybernet. Sys. 36, 735–752 (2005)
Fliedner, D.: Pre-spanish pueblos in new Mexico. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 65, 363–377 (1975)
Gregg, S.: Foragers and Farmers: Population Interaction and Agricultural Expansion in Prehistoric Europe. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1988)
Groube, L.: The impact of diseases upon the emergence of agriculture. In: Harris, D.R. (ed.) Origins and Spread of Agriculture and Pastoralism in Eurasia. University College London Press, London (1996)
Hoffmann, M., Kelley, H., Evans, T.: Simulating land-cover change in South-Central Indiana:an agent-based model of deforestation and afforestation. In: Jannsen, M.A. (ed.) Complexity and Ecosystem Management: The Theory and Practice of Multi-Agent Systems. Edward Elgar Publication, Cheltenham (2002)
Hole, F.: Economic implications of possible storage structures at Tell Ziyadeh, NE Syria. J. Field. Archaeol. 26, 267–283 (1999)
Holl, A.F.C.: Holocene Saharans: An Anthropological Perspective. Continuum, London (2004)
Irwin, E.G., Geoghegan, J.: Theory, data, methods: developing spatially explicit economic models of land use change. Agr. Ecosys. Environ. 85, 7–23 (2001)
Izikowitz, K.G.: Lamet: Hill Peasants in French Indochina. AMS Press, New York (1951)
Janssen, M.A., Ostrom, E.: Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecol. Soc. 11, 37 (2006)
Kirkby, A.V.T.: The Use of Land and Water Resources in the Past and Present Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico: Prehistory and Human Ecology of the Valley of Oaxaca, vol. 1. University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor (1973)
Kocabas, V., Dragićević, S.: Assessing cellular automata model behaviour using a sensitivity analysis approach. Comput. Environ. Urban 30, 921–953 (2006)
Kuznar, L.A.: High-fidelity computational social science in anthropology: prospects for developing a comparative framework. Soc. Sci. Comput. Rev. 24, 15–29 (2006)
Ladefoged, T., Kirch, P., Gon, S., Chadwick, O., Hartshorn, A., Vitousek, P.: Opportunities and constraints for intensive agriculture in the Hawaiian archipelago prior to European contact. J. Arch. Sci. 36, 2374–2383 (2009)
Lehner, M.: The fractal house of pharaoh: ancient egypt as a complex adaptation system, a trial formulation. In: Kohler T, Gumerman GJ (eds.) Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2000)
Levinson, H., Levinson, A.: Origin of grain storage and insect species consuming desiccated food. J. Pest. Sci. 67, 47–60 (1994)
Louwagie, G., Stevenson, C.M., Langohr, R.: The impact of moderate to marginal land suitability on prehistoric agricultural production and models of adaptive strategies for Easter Island (Rapa Nui, Chile). J. Anthro. Archaeol. 25, 290–317 (2006)
Malczewski, J.: GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. Wiley, New York (1999)
Manson, S.M.: Bounded rationality in agent-based models: experiments with evolutionary programs. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 20(9), 991–1012 (2006)
Matthews, R.: The people and lanscape model (PALM): towards full integration of human decision-making and biophysical simulation models. Ecol. Model. 194, 329–343 (2006)
McCann, J.C.: People of the Plow. Universtiy of Wisconsin Press, Madison (1995)
McClure, S., Jochim, M.A., Barton, C.M.: Human behavioral ecology, domestic animals, and land use during the transition to agriculture in valencia, Eastern Spain. In: Kennet, D.J., Winterhalder, B. (eds.) Behavioral Ecology and the Transition to Agriculture. University of California Press, Berkeley (2006)
Naroll, R.: Floor area and settlement population. Am. Antiquity 27, 587–589 (1962)
Parker, D.C., Manson, S.M., Janssen, M.A., Hoffmann, M.J., Deadman, P.: Multi-agent systems for the simulation of land-use and land-cover change: a review. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 93, 314–337 (2003)
Pettersson, M.: Increase of settlement size and population since the inception of agriculture. Nature 186, 870–872 (1960)
Pfister, F., Bader, H., Scheidegger, R., Baccini, P.: Dynamic modelling of resource management for farming systems. Agr. Syst. 86, 1–28 (2005)
Python Software Foundation. Python home. http://www.python.org (2006). Accessed Nov 2012
Robinson, W., Schutjer, W.: Agricultural development and demographic change: a generalization of the boserup model. Econ. Dev. Cult. Change 32, 355–366 (1984)
Situngkir, H.: Cultural studies through complexity sciences: beyond postmodern culture without postmodern theorists. In: Complexity and Cultural Studies Conference, Aalborg University, Denmark (2004), 22–24 Jan 2004
Smith, M.L.: How ancient agriculturalists managed field fluctuations through crop selection and reliance on wild plants: an example from central India. Econ. Bot. 60, 39–48 (2006)
Steward, J.: The Theory of Culture Change. University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1955)
Verburg, P.H., Schot, P.P., Dijst, M.J., Veldkamp, A.: Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. GeoJournal 61, 309–324 (2004)
White, R., Engelen, G.: Cellular automata and fractal urban form: a cellular modeling approach to the evolution of urban land-use patterns. Environ. Plann. A 25, 1175–1199 (1993)
White, R., Engelen, G.: High resolution integrated modelling of the spatial dynamics of urban and regional systems. Comp. Env. Urb. Syst. 24, 383–400 (2000)
Whitelaw, T.: The ethnoarchaeology of recent rural settlements and land-use in Northwest Keos. In: Cherry, J.F., Davis, J.L., Mantzourani, E. (eds.) Landscape Archaeology as Long-term History. Institute of Archaeology University of California, Los Angeles (1991)
Widdle, A.: The establishment of agricultural communities. In: Widdle, A. (ed.) Neolithic Europe: A survey. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1985)
Wu, F., Webster, C.J.: Simulation of land development through the integration of cellular automata and multicriteria evaluation. Environ. Plann. B 25, 103–126 (1998)
Zhang, H., Bevan, A., Fuller, D., Yang, Y.: Archaeobotanical and GIS-based approaches to prehistoric agriculture in the upper Ying valley, Henan, China. J. Arch. Sci. 37, 1480–1489 (2010)
Acknowledgments
The full support of this study was provided through Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) research grant awarded to the second author. Authors are thankful for valuable reviewers’ comments.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Aagesen, S., Dragićević, S. (2014). EARLI: A Complex Systems Approach for Modeling Land-use Change and Settlement Growth in Early Agricultural Societies. In: Mago, V., Dabbaghian, V. (eds) Computational Models of Complex Systems. Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol 53. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01285-8_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01285-8_9
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-01284-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-01285-8
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)