Abstract
This chapter deals in more depth with difficult issues which commonly arise in assessing good subjective probabilities. Topics include handling many possible arguments, dependencies between issues which are not formally or legal related, working with a group, tracking estimates over time, and alternative methods for assessing dependencies. Dependent or conditional probabilities are almost always present and usual crucial, so handling them correctly is key for creating good strategies and making good decisions.
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Notes
- 1.
Very advanced note: if you’re considering the client’s risk aversion and want to show her the full cumulative distribution, you’ll need to summarize the subtrees with chance nodes from the discretized distributions, rather than with mean values. Otherwise, you’ll lose the spread of possible outcomes from each subtree. See the section on subtrees for more details on how to do this.
- 2.
Mathematically speaking, distributions with vertical segment or corners are discontinuous because the slope of the distribution is infinite for a vertical segment and there is no slope at a corner. Hence the name piecewise-continuous to describe these kinds of distributions.
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Celona, J. (2016). Special Probability Approaches. In: Winning at Litigation through Decision Analysis. Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30040-5_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-30040-5_9
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Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-30038-2
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-30040-5
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