Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Complex Systems Design & Management (CSDM 2016)

Included in the following conference series:

  • 1059 Accesses

Abstract

As the supply of desalinated water becomes significant in many countries, the reliable long-term operation of desalination infrastructure becomes paramount. As it is not realistic to build desalination systems with components that never fail, instead the system should be designed with more resilience. To answer the question how resilient the system should be, we present in this paper a quantitative approach to measure system resilience using semi-Markov models. This approach allows to probabilistically represent the resilience of a desalination system, considering the functional or failed states of its components, as well as the probability of failure and repair rates. As the desalination plants are connected with the end-user through water transportation and distribution networks, this approach also enables an evaluation of various network configurations and resilience strategies. A case study addressing a segment of the water system in Saudi Arabia is given with the results, benefits, and limitations of the technique discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Abbreviations

CDF:

Cumulative Distribution Function

MRP:

Markov Renewal Process

MTBF:

Mean Time Between Failures

MTTR:

Mean Time to Repair

PDF:

Probability Distribution Function

SDR:

Standard Deviation in Repair Time

SMP:

Semi-Markov Processes

SWCC:

Saline Water Conversion Corporation

References

  1. NIAC: Critical Infrastructure Resilience Final Report and Recommendations. s.l.: National Infrastructure Advisory Council (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Fiksel, J., Goodman, I., Hecht, A.: Resilience: navigating a sustainable future. Solut. Sustain. Desirable Future 5(5), 38–47 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  3. McAllister, T.: Developing Guidelines and Standards for Disaster Resilience of the Built Environment: a Research Needs Assessment. NIST, Gaithersburg (2013)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  4. Hashimoto, T.: Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation. Water Resour. Res. 18(1), 14–20 (1982)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. EPA: Systems Measures of Water Distribution System Resilience. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  6. SSDN—Strategic Sustainable Desalination Network. Final Report, Center for Complex (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  7. SIPS—Sustainable Infrastructure Planning System Project: Final Report, Center for Complex Engineering Systems at KACST and MIT (2015). http://www.cces-kacst-mit.org

  8. SWCC: Annual Report. Saline Water Conversion Corporation, Riyadh (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Al-Naim, M.: Riyadh: a city of ‘institutional’ architecture. In: Elsheshtawy, Y. (ed.) The Evolving Arab City: Tradition, Modernity and Urban Development, pp. 118–152. Routledge, Abingdon (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Ishimatsu, T., Doufene, A., de Weck, O.: Desalination network model driven decision support system: a case study of San Diego. In: International Desalination Association World Congress 2015 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Lisnianski, A., Levitin, G.: Multi-State System Reliability. World Scientific, Singapore (2003)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Nunn, W.R., Desiderio, A.M.: Semi-markov processes: an introduction, Arlington, Virginia (1977)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Warr, R.L., Collins, D.H.: An introduction to solving for quantities of interest in finite-state semi-Markov processes (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Do, S., Owens, A.C., de Weck, O.L.: HabNet—an integrated habitation and supportability architecting and analysis tool. In: 45th International Conference on Environmental Systems, ICES-2015-289, Bellevue, WA (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Do, S., Owens, A., Ho, K., Schreiner, S., de Weck, O.: An independent assessment of the technical feasibility of the mars one mission plan—updated analysis. Acta Astronaut. 120, 192–228 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Owens, A.C.: Quantitative probabilistic modeling of environmental control and life support system resilience for long-duration human spaceflight. Massachusetts Institute of Technology (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Owens, A.C., de Weck, O.L.: Automated risk and supportability model generation for repairable systems. In: 66th International Astronautical Congress, IAC-15-D1.3.10, pp. 1–9. International Astronatical Federation, Jerusalem (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Owens, A.C., de Weck, O.L.: Use of semi-Markov models for quantitative ECLSS reliability analysis: spares and buffer sizing. In: 44th International Conference on Environmental Systems, ICES-2014-116, Tucson, AZ (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Owens, A., de Weck, O., Mattfeld, B., Stromgren, C., Cirillo, W.: Comparison of spares logistics analysis techniques for long duration human spaceflight. In: 45th International Conference on Environmental Systems, ICES-2015-288, Bellevue, WA: International Conference on Environmental Systems (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Owens, A., Do, S., Kurtz, A., de Weck, O.: Benefits of additive manufacturing for human exploration of mars. In: 45th International Conference on Environmental Systems, ICES-2015-287, Bellevue, WA: International Conference on Environmental Systems (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  21. Ebeling, C.E.: An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering. Tata McGraw-Hill Publishing Co., Ltd., New Delhi (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Jones, H.: Life support dependability for distant space missions. In: 40th International Conference on Environmental Systems, AIAA-2010-6287. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Barcelona (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Kline, M.B.: Suitability of the lognormal distribution for corrective maintenance repair times. Reliab. Eng. 9, 65–80 (1984)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Abate, J., Whitt, W.: Numerical inversion of Laplace transforms of probability distributions. ORSA J. Comput. 7 (1995)

    Google Scholar 

  25. SWCC: SWCC Projects Pipeline (2016). http://www.swcc.gov.sa/english/Projects/Pipelines/Pages/PipeLine.aspx. Accessed 11 April 2016

  26. Lasser, B., Heinz, A.: Innovations and technological developments in long distance water transmission systems: case study of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Essen: 3R International Technical Journal for Piping System Integrity and Efficiency (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Khan, S.A.: Riyadh residents breathe sigh of relief as water supply restored. Saudi Gazette 16, 09 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  28. Malik, A.U., Andijani, I., Mobin, M., Al-Hajri, M.: Investigations on the Leakage in RWTS, Line—A at 24 km (A/B)1. SWCC, Al Jubail (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  29. SWCC: Annual Report. Saline Water Conversion Corporation, Riyadh (2013)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank all the SSDN project team members for their collaboration, comments and feedback. This research was supported by the Center for Complex Engineering Systems (CCES) at MIT and KACST (http://www.cces-kacst-mit.org/). This research was supported by a NASA Space Technology Research Fellowship (grant number NNX14AM42H).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Complex Engineering Systems at KACST and MIT, PO Box 6086, Riyadh, 11442, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Abdulaziz Khiyami & Adnan Alsaati

  2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building E40-261, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307, USA

    Andrew Owens, Abdelkrim Doufene & Olivier de Weck

Authors
  1. Abdulaziz Khiyami
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Andrew Owens
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Abdelkrim Doufene
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Adnan Alsaati
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Olivier de Weck
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Abdulaziz Khiyami .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Dassault Systèmes, Vélizy-Villacoublay, France

    Gauthier Fanmuy

  2. École Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

    Eric Goubault

  3. CESAMES, Paris, France

    Daniel Krob

  4. IRT SystemX, Palaiseau, France

    François Stephan

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing AG

About this paper

Cite this paper

Khiyami, A., Owens, A., Doufene, A., Alsaati, A., de Weck, O. (2017). Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models. In: Fanmuy, G., Goubault, E., Krob, D., Stephan, F. (eds) Complex Systems Design & Management. CSDM 2016. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49103-5_10

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49103-5_10

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49102-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-49103-5

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation