Demand-Driven Line Planning with Selfish Routing

Abstract

Bus rapid transit systems in developing and newly industrialized countries are often operated at the limits of passenger capacity. In particular, demand during morning and afternoon peaks is hardly or even not covered with available line plans. In order to develop demand-driven line plans, we use two mathematical models in the form of integer programming problem formulations. While the actual demand data is specified with origin-destination pairs, the arc-based model considers the demand over the arcs derived from the origin-destination demand. In order to test the accuracy of the models in terms of demand satisfaction, we simulate the optimal solutions and compare number of transfers and travel times. We also question the effect of a selfish route choice behavior which in theory results in a Braess-like paradox by increasing the number of transfers when system capacity is increased with additional lines.