ANEPI: Economic Analysis of Oil Field Development Projects under Uncertainty

Introduction

The analysis of an option to develop (set up for production) a previously delimited oil field requires investments whose costs and whose benefits depend on the alternative chosen. Some alternatives include more wells than others; others present a different geometric distribution of the wells. There are also different types of wells (vertical, directional, horizontal, multilateral, etc.) which involve different types of investments and benefits. The combination of these aspects with others, such as: platform types; production flow system; drilling speed (rig availability); lifting method (gas lift, centrifugal pumping, etc.), oil recovery method, etc., makes this a complex optimization problem. In addition, alternatives to invest in information and even alternatives to simply wait for market conditions to improve must be taken into account. Flexibility is another aspect that needs to be considered in the concept of oil field development as a means by which to ensure that it will be possible to incorporate a future increase in production (expansion option) through additional optional wells, depending on the market conditions and on how the reservoir responds to the first months/years of production.