Skip to main content

Average Value at Risk in Fuzzy Risk Analysis

  • Conference paper
Fuzzy Information and Engineering Volume 2

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing ((AINSC,volume 62))

Abstract

The average value at risk (AVaR) is a risk measure which is a superior alternative to value at risk (VaR). In this paper, we present the average value at risk method for fuzzy risk analysis. Firstly, we put forward the new concept of the average value at risk based on credibility theory. Next, we examine some properties of the proposed average value at risk. Then, a kind of fuzzy simulation algorithm is given to calculate the average value at risk. Finally, numerical example is provided. The proposed average value at risk can be applied in many real problems of fuzzy risk analysis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 259.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 329.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Alexander, S., Coleman, T.F., Li, Y.: Minimizing CVaR and VaR for a portfolio of derivatives. Journal of Banking and Finance 30(2), 583–605 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M., Heath, D.: Thinking Coherently. Risk 10(11), 68–71 (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Artzner, P., Delbaen, F., Eber, J.M., Heath, D.: Coherent measures of risk. Mathematical Finance 9(3), 203–228 (1999)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  4. Chen, S.J., Chen, S.M.: Fuzzy risk analysis based on similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 11(1), 45–56 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Chen, S.J., Chen, S.M.: Fuzzy risk analysis based on the ranking of generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Applied Intelligence 26(1), 1–11 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Cheng, S., Liu, Y., Wang, S.: Progress in Risk Measurement. Advanced Modelling and Optimization 6(1), 1–20 (2004)

    MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Choudhry, M.: An Introduction to Value-at-Risk, 4th edn. John Wiley, Chichester (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Duffie, D., Pan, J.: An overview of value at risk. Journal of Derivatives 4, 7–49 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Fermanian, J.D., Scaillet, O.: Sensitivity analysis of VaR and expected shortfall for portfolios under netting agreements. Journal of Banking and Finance 29(4), 927–958 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Gotoh, J.Y., Takano, Y.: Newsvendor solutions via conditional value-at-risk minimization. European Journal of Operational Research 179(1), 80–96 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Gourieroux, C., Laurent, J.P., Scaillet, O.: Sensitivity analysis of Values at Risk. Journal of Empirical Finance 7(3), 225–245 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Huang, C., Moraga, C.: A fuzzy risk model and its matrix algorithm. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 10(4), 347–362

    Google Scholar 

  13. Jorion, P.: Value at Risk: The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk, 2nd edn. McGraw-Hill, New York (2001)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Kaplanski, G., Kroll, Y.: VaR risk measures vs traditional risk measures: An analysis and survey. Journal of Risk 4(3), 1–28 (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  15. Lee, L.W., Chen, S.M.: Fuzzy risk analysis based on fuzzy numbers with different shapes and different deviations. Expert Systems with Applications 34(4), 2763–2771 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Li, X., Liu, B.: A sufficient and necessary condition for credibility measures. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness & Knowledge-Based Systems 14(5), 527–535 (2006)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  17. Liu, B.: Uncertainty Theory: An Introduction to its Axiomatic Foundations. Springer, Berlin (2004)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Liu, B.: A survey of credibility theory. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making 5(4), 387–408 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  19. Liu, B.: A survey of entropy of fuzzy variables. Journal of Uncertain Systems 1(1), 4–13 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Liu, B., Liu, Y.K.: Expected value of fuzzy variable and fuzzy expected value models. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems 10(4), 445–450 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Liu, Y.K., Gao, J.: The independence of fuzzy variables in credibility theory and its applications. International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness & Knowledge-Based Systems 15, 1–19 (2007)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  22. Morgan, J.P.: RiskMetricsTM- -Technical Document, 4th edn. Morgan Guaranty Trust Companies, Inc., New York (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Peng, J., Liu, B.: Some properties of optimistic and pessimistic values of fuzzy variables. In: Proceedings of the Tenth IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems, vol. 2, pp. 292–295 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Peng, J., Mok, H.M.K., Tse, W.M.: Fuzzy dominance based on credibility distributions. In: Wang, L., Jin, Y. (eds.) FSKD 2005. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 3613, pp. 295–303. Springer, Heidelberg (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Peng, J., Liu, H., Shang, G.: Ranking fuzzy variables in terms of credibility measure. In: Wang, L., Jiao, L., Shi, G., Li, X., Liu, J. (eds.) FSKD 2006. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 4223, pp. 217–220. Springer, Heidelberg (2006)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  26. Peng, J.: Measuring fuzzy risk with credibilistic value at risk. In: Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Innovative Computing. Information and Control, Dalian, China, June 18-20, pp. 718–721 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  27. Roberts, S.M.: Practical issues in the use of probabilistic risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 5(4), 729–736 (1999)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Rockafeller, R.T., Uryasev, S.: Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk 2(3), 21–41 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  29. Rockafeller, R.T., Uryasev, S.: Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking & Finance 26(7), 1443–1471 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Rockafeller, R.T.: Coherent approaches to risk in optimization under uncertainty. Tutorials in Operations Research INFORMS, pp. 38–61 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  31. Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy sets. Information and Control 8, 338–353 (1965)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Peng, J. (2009). Average Value at Risk in Fuzzy Risk Analysis. In: Cao, B., Li, TF., Zhang, CY. (eds) Fuzzy Information and Engineering Volume 2. Advances in Intelligent and Soft Computing, vol 62. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03664-4_139

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-03664-4_139

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-03663-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-03664-4

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics