Risk: Concepts and implications

Abstract

The concept of risk is based on the distinction between reality and possibility (Markowitz, 1990). Only if the future is perceived as being at least partially modifiable by human agency, is it possible to avoid potential hazards or to mitigate their impacts (Ewald, 1993). This may appear trivial to the modern citizen. However, by far the greater part of human history has been characterized by a fatalistic attitude to the future (Covello and Mumpower, 1985). Thinking in categories of risk (and also opportunity) presupposes a minimum of ability to modify the future and thus to avoid undesirable events by taking precautions. To predict possible hazards, it is necessary to identify causal relationships between sources and consequences. These cause-effect relationships can be scientific, anecdotal, religious or magic (Douglas, 1966; Wiedemann, 1993). As the effects are undesired, the concept of risk always also implies a normative aspect. Society is called upon to prevent, reduce or at least control risks.