Modeling Climate Change: Perspective and Applications in the Context of Bangladesh

Abstract

During the past few decades, climate scientists have been warning about changes in global climate with intense impacts on agriculture, livelihood, water resources, ecosystem, energy, and other socioeconomic affairs. Meteorological information and observations of vulnerable entities such as glacier melting unequivocally substantiate the projections. The recent forecast of IPCC reveals that global mean temperature is expected to increase by 2.4°C by the end of this century resulting in consequential effects on sea-level rise, volume and pattern of precipitation and, magnitude and frequency of extreme events such as cyclones (IPCC 2007a). Studies also suggest that the rate of change of climate parameters observed during the past few decades is unprecedented which may result in irreversible changes in the global ecosystem. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries with respect to the impacts of climate change. The country’s vulnerability stems from its exposure to a wide range of climate change parameters, geographical setup, and socioeconomic conditions. Germanwatch identified Bangladesh as the most vulnerable country on the basis of Climate Risk Index score (Germanwatch 2008). Government of Bangladesh has identified climate change as a priority issue and initiated formulating strategies. In this connection, assessing the potential risk and comparison among alternate options are the prime requirements. For this purpose, climate change impact models are widely used. This paper summarizes the findings of application of such models in Bangladesh.