Abstract
Climate impact research is of increasing importance because politicians, local decision makers, and the society require guidance regarding the environmental effects of global warming. This information is needed on a regional scale which cannot be provided by global climate models. Therefore, tools are needed to translate global climate trends into a regional scale. Regional climate models are used to scale global climate simulations with coarser resolution to a finer grid. Beside the knowledge about atmospheric variables further information of the marine environment, especially for coastal regions, is important. Regional ocean models driven by regional climate models can provide scenarios for the future development of the marine environment. A Baltic Sea ecosystem model is used for scenario simulations to assess the potential development of the Baltic Sea within the next 100 years. The simulations show an increasing water temperature in the range of 2–3.5 K and a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 g kg–1. Events with large suboxic areas are likely to increase in the western Baltic Sea. However, the uncertainties in the climate projections are high and for robust results more scenario simulations are needed.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2003) Climate modelling: severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature 421:805–806
CLM Community Runs (2008) http://www.mad.zmaw.de/projects-at-md/sg-adaptation/clm/clm-available-data-and-plots/. Accessed 25 Aug 2010
ECHAM5 (2008) http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam.html. Accessed 25 Aug 2010
ENSEMBLES (2009) http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/index.html. Accessed 9 Sep 2010
Hollweg HD, Böhm U, Fast I, Hennemuth B, Keuler K, Keup-Thiel E, Lautenschlager M, Legutke S, Radtke K, Rockel B, Schubert M, Will A, Woldt M, Wunram C (2008) Ensemble simulations over Europe with the regional climate model CLM forced with IPCC AR4 global scenarios. Technical report, Max- Planck-Institute for meteorology, Model and Data. URL http://www.mad.zmaw.de/fileadmin/extern/documents/reports/MaD_TechRep3_CLM__1_.pdf. Accessed 25 Aug 2010
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf. Accessed 24 Aug 2010
Jaeger EB, Anders I, Lüthi D, Rockel B, Schär C, Seneviratne SI (2008) Analysis of ERA40-driven CLM simulations for Europe. Meteorol Z 17:349–367
Meier HEM (2005) Modelling the age of Baltic Sea water masses: quantification and steady state sensitivity experiments. J Geophys Res 110:C02,006
Meier HEM (2006) Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios. Clim Dyn 27(1):39 68
Meier HEM, Kauker F (2003) Modelling decadal variability of the Baltic Sea: 2. Role of freshwater inflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation for salinity. J Geophys Res 108(C11):3368
Neumann T (2010) Climate-change effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem: a model study. J Marine Syst 81:213–224
Neumann T, Schernewski G (2008) Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea and shifts in nitrogen fixation analyzed with a 3D ecosystem model. J Marine Syst 74:592–602
Pacanowski RC, Griffies SM (2000) MOM 3.0 Manual. Tech. rep., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Rummukainen M (2010) State-of-the-art with regional climate models. WIREs Clim Change 1:82–96
The BACC Author Team (2008) Assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Springer, Berlin
Acknowledgments
Supercomputing power was provided by HLRN (Norddeutscher Verbund für Hoch- und Höchstleistungsrechnen). We thank the modelling group of the Baltic Sea Research Institute for providing support for the circulation model. This work was partly supported by BMBF grant 01 LR 0807B (RA:dOst).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Neumann, T., Friedland, R. (2011). Climate Change Impacts on the Baltic Sea. In: Schernewski, G., Hofstede, J., Neumann, T. (eds) Global Change and Baltic Coastal Zones. Coastal Research Library, vol 1. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0400-8_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0400-8_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-0399-5
Online ISBN: 978-94-007-0400-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)