Abstract
The paper presents a theoretical approach to the study of subjective probability distributions for imperfectly known quantities. In probabilistic inference tasks, information processing is subject to the usual limitations under which humans operate. Most importantly, human information processing uses a working memory of limited capacity, in a serial fashion. It is assumed that this working memory is used by a subject who is evaluating the degree of his uncertainty. The proposed theory makes three important assumptions. First, the processing of relevant knowledge takes place in a serial, multi-stage fashion; second, many of the early stages are accomplished without the recognition of uncertainty; third, a subject’s evaluation of his uncertainty is based on a restructuring process, which is limited to those parts of the structure that follow the point of assumed certainty. The restructuring is assumed to be based upon a search of long term memory for any relevant information.
The research was supported by grant GB-28708X from the National Science Foundation.
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© 1975 D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland
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Pitz, G.F. (1975). A Structural Theory of Uncertain Knowledge. In: Wendt, D., Vlek, C. (eds) Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making. Theory and Decision Library, vol 11. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-1834-0_9
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