Abstract
The main conclusion suggested by this study is that both the structure — that is the regional distribution, commodity composition and balancing of payments — and the modus operandi of international trade have been radically altered in the last thirty years.
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References
Except for the period embracing the First World War and the early twenties» when Great Britain went off the Gold Standard.
William Y. Elliott, et al, The Political Economy of American Foreign Policy, (New York: Henry Holt and Co., 1955), p. 207. The following quotation offers an interesting evaluation of Bretton Woods:
This statement should be qualified with respect to the Sterling Area to apply to intra-imports. The rise in the share of intra-exports to total bloc exports had been quite appreciable in the thirties, and remained stable in the postwar period (See Table 48). Furthermore the tendency towards trade region-alization within the Sterling Bloc appeared to have come to an end by 1954 (See Chapter V).
Based on Tables 40, 48, and 55.
The ratio of intratrade to total free world trade kept on increasing slightly between 1954 and 1956 within both the Dollar Area and the Continental O. E. E. C. Bloc, but declined sharply within the Sterling Area.
See Diagrams 1 and 2 in Chapter III.
The above-mentioned factors appear to have played a much more important part in furthering trade within the blocs than price considerations as such. At least one study showed that the correlation between unit value of exports and the volume of exports of manufactures from industrial Western Europe and the U. S. was not very high in the postwar period. (See J. M. Fleming and S. C. Tsiang, “Changes in Competitive Strength and Export Shares of Major Industrial Countries,” International Monetary Fund, Staff Papers; August, 1956).
Trimn, op. cit., p. 246. The same author concludes after a thorough analysis of the effects of monetary and commercial agreements in Western Europe after the end of World War II that: Regional agreements and organizations have (nevertheless) demonstrated their ability to solve pressing conflicts and to achieve intimate, even though incomplete, integration of economic policies among countries, recognizing at the same time that: Looser forms of coordination on a world-wide scale remain both feasible and necessary as a framework for national or regional decisions and policies giving rise to conflicts of interest, real or imagined, which cannot be arbitrated on the regional level. (Ibid., p. 259.)
Rockefeller Report on U. S. International Economic Policy, Foreign Economic Policy for the Twentieth Century, Special Studies Project Report III, (New York, Doubleday and Co., 1958), p. 28.
Ibid., pp. 29–30. It is interesting to note that the Rockefeller Report devoted a whole chapter to an outline of the type of regional structure, including a common market and an inter-American payments union, which could be set up for the Western Hemisphere as a whole (See Chapter V, pp. 61–68).
See Jacob Viner, The Customs Union Issue, (New York: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1950).
These criteria are based on Viner, op. cit., pp. 41–54; James E. Meade, The Theory of Customs Union, (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Co., 1955), pp. 107–115, and Elliott, op. cit., pp. 236–237. It should be noted for completeness sake, that these criteria refer in a strict sense to a customs union. However, they do not seem greatly impaired when applied to “blocs.”
Elliott, op. cit., p. 237.
The Dollar Bloc does not present enough characteristics of a union to warrant a critical appraisal of the desirability of the regionalization tendency which it has been undergoing. Nevertheless it can be argued that this trend is desirable to the extent that it is caused by changes in the structure of the dollar countries economies.
See Chapter IV, pp. 125–126.
Internal tariffs and quotas are to be gradually eliminated over a transitional period of 12 to 15 years. The common tariff vis-à-vis the outside world will eventually be based, with a few exceptions, on the arithmetic averages of the present ad valorem tariff of the member states. The Treaty of Rome has a number of special provisions for agricultural policies which could interfere with the freeing of intratrade in agricultural commodities.
Scitovsky believes on the basis of a careful theoretical analysis of the question that the greatest impact of future European integration will be on the methods of production and investment rather than on an international reallocation of output. His contention is that the scope for reallocation within many national industries is so large that such reallocation would, not only precede but also, often take the place of reallocation between national industries. (See Tibor Scitovsky, Economic Theory and Western European Integration, (London, Allen and Unwin, 1958), pp. 39–40.
See, for instance, 1) J. Viner’s statement: “I would argue that in general, for a European customs union, or a Western European customs union, whether it embraced England or not, there would be a strong presumption that it would be to the marked advantage of the world as a whole.” Hearings, op. cit., p. 610; 2) Franz Gehrels and Bruce F. Johnston, “The Economic Gains of European Integration,” The Journal of Political Economy, (August, 1955), pp. 291–292; 3) F. V. Meyer, “Complementarity and the Lowering of Tariffs,” American Economic Review, (June, 1956), pp. 334–335; 4) Tibor Scitovs-ky, op. cit., pp. 132–135.
In the case of semi-manufactures if 10 per cent ad valorem is taken as the dividing line between high and low tariffs, less than one tenth of all tariff incidences fall above this line in the Benelux countries as compared with more than 70 per cent in France and Italy, and about 50 per cent in Western Germany. In the finished-goods sector taking 20 per cent ad valorem as the borderline about 10 per cent of all tariff incidences fall above this line in Benelux as opposed to about two-thirds in Italy and half of all incidences in France. (For further detail see U. N., Economic Survey of Europe, 1956, Ch. IV, pp. 14–15.)
This point has been emphasized in a few recent publications. See particularly: 1) G. A. T. T., Trends in International Trade, A Report by a Panel of Experts (Campos, Haberler, Meade, Tinbergen), Geneva, 1958, pp. 119–122, and 2) U. N., Economic Survey of Europe 1957, Ch. V, pp. 17–19.
The total value of imports of foodstuffs and raw materials into North America from Dollar Latin America is expected to rise from 2.4 billion dollars in 1954–1956 (average) to 4.7 billion dollars in 1975, whereas total imports from all areas (excluding trade between Canada and the U. S.) are anticipated to increase from 7.2 billion dollars to 12.2 billion dollars over the same period. (See U. N. Economic Survey of Europe 1957, Chapter V, p. 12, Table 7.)
As previously mentioned the Rockefeller Report in fact analyzed the lines along which such a regional trading and payments sphere could be formed (See Rockefeller Report, op. cit., Chapter V).
See Table 48. In this respect it seems true, as Triffin points out, that Two world wars have sapped the financial and economic strength of the United Kingdom to such an extent as to cast growing doubts everywhere about its ability to resume its traditional position as the sole core and support of the enormous superstructure erected in former days, upon sterling trade and sterling financing (Triflin, op. cit., p. 279).
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Thorbecke, E. (1959). Economic Regionalism Critical Evaluation and Future Prospects. In: The Tendency towards Regionalization in International Trade 1928–1956. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-1053-0_7
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