Abstract
Currently, China is experiencing the early phase of population aging. Therefore, opportunities, such as ‘demographic profit’ and ‘demographic dividend’, provided by the ‘post golden age’ of age-structure transformation should be seized in order to prepare for ‘demographic deficit’ and ‘demographic debt’ that might emerge in the later phase of population aging. Meanwhile, we should encourage more consumption from the elderly and accelerate the establishment of the social security system and its rules, while transforming the pattern of economic development from investment and foreign trade-oriented to consumption-led; analysing the dual impact of population aging on savings, investment, human capital and technological progress by drawing on both positive and negative examples from other countries, making full use of advantages and avoiding disadvantages; tapping the human resource potential of the elderly; and giving full play to the positive effect of population aging in breaking out of the ‘middle-income trap’.
This part is organized by Zhang Kaiti, former director of China Research Centre on Aging, research fellow, deputy secretary of the CPC Committee of the department directly under the China Working Committee Office on Aging and vice president of China Senior care industry Association. He has led a number of state key research projects, including ‘A Sample Survey on the Living Conditions of the Elderly in Urban and Rural China’, ‘Follow-up Survey on the Living Conditions of the Elderly in Urban and Rural China’, etc. His main publications include Research on Solutions to China’s Population Aging (Zhang Kaiti et al.), Research on Social Participation and Mental Stage of the Elderly in Urban and Rural China (compiled by Zhang Kaiti and Guo Ping), The Elderly in the United States (compiled by Zhang Kaiti), etc. Guo Ping and Li Jing are responsible for the compilation of this part. Authors of this part include: Guo Ping, Li Jing, Sun Lujun, Ma Fengli, Miao Wensheng, Wang Haitao, Wu Xiaolan, Zhang Qiuxia, Wei Yanyan, Wang Lili, Qu Jiayao, Yang Xiaoqi and Luo Xiaohui, all research fellows from China Research Centre on Aging.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
See: Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: ‘Analysis on the Demand and Supply of Urban Public Employment Service Market in the First Quarter of 2012’, retrieved June 10, 2015 from http://www.mohrss.gov.cn.
- 2.
Statistics shown in the 2000 and 2010 survey are statistics from those years, while statistics in the 2006 survey are from 2005.
- 3.
Source: Statistical Bulletin of the Development of Human Resources and Social Security Cause 2010.
- 4.
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2013, p. 101.
- 5.
Source: Statistical Bulletin of the Development of China’s Aging Cause 2010.
References
Barrientos, A., Gorman, M., & Heslop, A. (2003). Old Age poverty in developing countries: Contribution and dependence in later life. World Development, 31(1), 555–570.
Cai, F., & Wang, D. W. (1999). Sustainability of China’s economic growth and labor contribution. Economic Research Journal, 10, 62–68.
China Centre for National Accounting and Economic Growth at Peking University. (2011). Report on China’s economic growth in 2011—The key to overcoming the middle-income trap lies in the transformation of development mode. China Development Press.
Fan, J. (2011). Economic transformation of Japan before and after exceeding per capita GDP of 1 million USD. Qunzhong (1), 28–29.
Guest, R. S. (2007). Innovation in macroeconomic modeling of population ageing. Economic Modelling, 24, 101–119.
Hou, J. M., & Zhou, H. Y. (2010). Impacts of the aging population on the Japanese economic development. Contemporary Economy of Japan, 4, 53–57.
Naughton, B. (2010). The Chinese economy: Transitions and growth. Shanghai People’s Publishing House.
Report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Challenges for China’s public spending: Toward greater effectiveness and equity.
Skirbekk, V. (2004). Age and individual productivity: A literature survey. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research.
Song, S. Y., & Li, C. L. (2008). China’s social security expenditure level, 1992–2006. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 3, 38–46.
The World Bank. (2010, November). Robust recovery, rising risk: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010 (Vol. 2, p. 27), Washington, DC.
Tian, X. Y., Wang, J. Y., & Zhou, G. Q. (2006). Aging: From ‘demographic profit’ to ‘demographic deficit’. Economic Press China.
Wang, F., & Mason, A. (2006). The demographic factor in China’s transition. In Y. F. Lin (Eds.), 21st century population and economic development in China (pp. 2–18). Social Sciences Academic Press.
Wang, Y. M. (2011). International compare and reason analyses of medium incomes. Modern Talent, 2, 28–31.
Ye, X. J., Li, L., & Kusaka, Y. (2002). The process of Japan’s population aging and related health-care systems. Health Economics Research, 6, 24–25.
Yin, H. (2000). Korea’s population aging and social security for the elderly. Population Journal, 5, 29–34.
Yuan, B., & Guo, X. B. (2009). A review on the impact of population aging on economic growth. Economic Perspectives, 11, 114–119.
Zhang, M. (2009). China’s high savings: Stylized facts and sector analysis. China Financial Publishing House.
Zhang, K. T., & Guo, P. (2010). Chinese population aging and the elderly status of Blue Book. Social Sciences Press.
Zheng, B. W. (2011). “Middle-income trap” and China’s path to development: In perspective of international experiences and lessons. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2, 2–15.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2017 Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Zhang, K. et al. (2017). Population Aging and Economic Growth. In: Tian, X. (eds) China’s Population Aging and the Risk of ‘Middle-income Trap’ . Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4941-5_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4941-5_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-10-4940-8
Online ISBN: 978-981-10-4941-5
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)