Skip to main content

Time Series Analysis and Prediction of Geographically Separated Accident Data

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Intelligent Information and Database Systems (ACIIDS 2020)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1178))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

Road accidents are one of the most common causes of death in many countries, so it is imperative that police and local authorities take appropriate measures to prevent them. Accident circumstances vary depending on place and time. Therefore, a determined geographical and temporal analysis is needed in order to predict and interpret future accident numbers. Our study shows how such an analysis can be carried out using geographical segmentation. In particular, we take into account the different accident circumstances and their influence on the number of road accidents in the context of time series analysis.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. Balogun, O.S., Oguntunde, P.E., Akinrefon, A.A., Modibbo, U.M.: Comparison of the performance of ARIMA and MA model selection on road accident data in Nigeria. Eur. J. Academ. Essays 2(3), 13–31 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Cheng, H., Tan, P.N., Potter, C., Klooster, S.: Detection and characterization of anomalies in multivariate time series. In: Park, H. (ed.) Proceedings of the 9th SIAM International Conference on Data Mining, pp. 413–424. SIAM, Philadelphia (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Commandeur, J.J.F., Bijleveld, F.D., Bergel-Hayat, R., Antoniou, C., Yannis, G., Papadimitriou, E.: On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety. Accid. Anal. Prev. 60, 424–434 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Department for Transport: Road safety data (2019). Published under Open Government Licence. https://data.gov.uk/dataset/cb7ae6f0-4be6-4935-9277-47e5ce24a11f/road-safety-data. Accessed 10 Sept 2019

  5. Dong, N., Huang, H., Lee, J., Gao, M., Abdel-Aty, M.: Macroscopic hotspots identification: a Bayesian spatio-temporal interaction approach. Accid. Anal. Prev. 92, 256–264 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Fawcett, L., Thorpe, N., Matthews, J., Kremer, K.: A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction. Accid. Anal. Prev. 99, 262–271 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Geurts, K., Wets, G.: Black spot analysis methods: literature review. Policy Research Centre for Traffic Safety 2002–2006 (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Huddleston, S.H., Porter, J.H., Brown, D.E.: Improving forecasts for noisy geographic time series. J. Bus. Res. 68(8), 1810–1818 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hyndman, R.J., Athanasopoulos, G.: Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 2nd edn. OTexts, Melbourne (2019). OTexts.com/fpp2

    Google Scholar 

  10. Ihueze, C.C., Onwurah, U.O.: Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: an analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria. Accid. Anal. Prev. 112, 21–29 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Karlis, D., Hermans, E.: Time series models for road safety accident prediction. Policy Research Centre for Mobility and Public Works (2012)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Kumar, S., Toshniwal, D.: A novel framework to analyze road accident time series data. J. Big Data 3(1), 1–11 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Meißner, K., Rieck, J.: Data mining framework to derive measures for road safety. In: Perner, P. (ed.) Machine Learning and Data Mining in Pattern Recognition - Proceedings of the 15th International Conference, MLDM, NY. ibai Publishing (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Quddus, M.A.: Time series count data models: an empirical application to traffic accidents. Accid. Anal. Prev. 40(5), 1732–1741 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Razzaghi, A., Bahrampour, A., Baneshi, M.R., Zolala, F.: Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study. Int. J. Health Policy Manag. 1(1), 51–55 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis): Verkehr - Verkehrsunfälle 2018: Fachserie 8 Reihe 7 (2019). https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Verkehrsunfaelle/Publikationen/Downloads-Verkehrsunfaelle/verkehrsunfaelle-jahr-2080700187004.pdf

  17. Sunny, C.M., et al.: Forecasting of road accident in Kerala: a case study. In: International Conference on Data Science and Engineering (ICDSE). IEEE, Piscataway (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Wai, A.H.C., Seng, S.Y., Fei, J.L.W.: Fatality involving road accidents in Malaysia. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Mathematics and Statistics - ICoMS 2019, pp. 101–105. ACM Press, New York (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Yousefzadeh-Chabok, S., Ranjbar-Taklimie, F., Malekpouri, R., Razzaghi, A.: A time series model for assessing the trend and forecasting the road traffic accident mortality. Arch. Trauma Res. 5(3), e36570 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Katherina Meißner .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Meißner, K., Pal, F., Rieck, J. (2020). Time Series Analysis and Prediction of Geographically Separated Accident Data. In: Sitek, P., Pietranik, M., Krótkiewicz, M., Srinilta, C. (eds) Intelligent Information and Database Systems. ACIIDS 2020. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1178. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3380-8_13

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3380-8_13

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-15-3379-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-15-3380-8

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics