Abstract
The founders of the post-World War II U.S. “containment” strategy, George Kennan and Paul Nitze, had both opposed NATO enlargement into central and eastern Europe following the Soviet collapse. In February 1997, Kennan asserted that NATO enlargement “would be the most fatal error of U.S. policy in the entire post-Cold era.”1 On the surface, this statement appears to have been overtaken by the colossal strategic blunder of U.S. intervention in Iraq. (See Chapter 3.) Yet, the global ramifications of U.S. military expansion and NATO enlargement have begun to reveal themselves: Russian leaders have begun to more forthrightly denounce U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) policy, NATO enlargement, and the 1990 Conventional Force in Europe (CFE) treaty (adapted in 1999).2 On July 14, 2007, Russia stated that it would suspend its participation in the CFE until NATO ratified the treaty.
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Notes
George Kennan, “NATO Expansion Would Be a Fateful Blunder,” International Herald Tribune, February 6, 1997.
See Hall Gardner, Dangerous Crossroads (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1997), 135.
Dario Cristiani, “Russia’s New Initiatives in the Persian Gulf,” Power and Interest News Report (PIRN), March 1, 2007, http://www.pinr.com.
See Hall Gardner, “The Genesis of NATO Enlargement and the War ‘over’ Kosovo,” in Central and Southeastern Europe in Transition, ed. Hall Gardner (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000).
Andrei S. Grachev, “La Russie à la recherche d’une politique étrangère,” Relations internationales: les Etudes de la Documentation Francaise La Russie 1995–1996 (Paris: la Documentation Francaise, 1996)
Andrei S. Grachev, Histoire Vraie de la Fin de l’URSS (Paris: Editions du Rocher, 1992), 88–92.
See also Susan Eisenhower in Ted Galen Carpenter and Barbara Conry, eds., NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality (Washington, DC.: Cato Institute, 1998).
Cited in Stephen Blank, “The NATO-Russia Partnership: A Marriage of Convenience Or a Troubled Partnership?,” Strategic Studies Institute, 2005, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB73 4.pdf.
Cited in Stephen Blank, “The NATO-Russia Partnership: A Marriage of Convenience Or a Troubled Partnership?,” Strategic Studies Institute, 2005,
Thom Shanker, “U.S. Tries to Ease Concerns in Russia on Antimissile Plan,” New York Times, February 22, 2007.
Richard Weitz, “Revitalizing US-Russian Security Cooperation,” RFE/RL Newsline 11:33, Part I, February 21, 2007.
Jennifer Loven, “Bush Wins Polish Nod for Missile Defense,” The Guardian (June 8, 2007) http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0„-6695301,00.html; http:// www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2007/06/9e494269–29d1–4e66-b950 -ac846e7e9c2a.html; “Intelligence Brief: Russia-Western Dialogue on B.M.D. Remains Difficult,” PINR, http://www.pinr.com.
Paul T. Mitchell, “Network Centric Warfare: Coalition Operations in the Age of U.S. Military Primacy,” Adelphi Paper No. 385 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2006).
Richard Weitz, Revitalizing US-Russian Security Cooperation (London: Adelphi Papers, 2005).
Daryl G. Kimball, “START Over,” Arms Control Today, June 2007.
For analysis, see Jeronim Perovic and Robert Orttung, “Russia’s Energy Policy: Should Europe Worry?,” Russian Analytical Digest 18 (April 3, 2007).
See James Sherr, “Ukraine: The Pursuit of Defence Reform in an Unfavourable Context,” Conflict Studies Research Centre Central & Eastern Europe Series 04/08 (June 2004).
On the domestic crisis in Ukraine, see James Sherr, “Ukraine: Prospects and Risks,” Conflict Studies Research Centre Central & Eastern Europe Series Research Centre 06/52 (October 2006).
See Jacques Rupnick, “In Search of East-Central Europe,” in Central and Southeastern Europe in Transition, ed. Hall Gardner (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2000).
Cornelius Ochmann, “Polish-Russian Relations in the Context of the EU’s New Eastern Policy,” Russian Analytical Digest 15 (February 20, 2007). http://se2.isn.ch/ serviceengine/FileContent?servicel D=PublishingHouse&fileid=C68F7FA1-F640-A2CF-DA36–42E321D7EF5A&lng=en.
Cornelius Ochmann, “Polish-Russian Relations in the Context of the EU’s New Eastern Policy,” Russian Analytical Digest 15 (February 20, 2007).
Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, “The Black Sea Region and Its Growing Influence,” Athens, BSEC Day (July 18, 2006).
Marcel de Haas, “Current Geostrategy in the South Caucasus,” PINR, December 15, 2006, http://www.pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=595&language id=1.
For background to the frozen conflicts, see Charles King in Grasping the Nettle, eds. Crocker, Hampson, and Aall (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2005).
Federico Bordonaro, “Georgia: NATO by way of BMD” ISN Security Watch (29 May 2007) http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17669.
Eugene B. Rumer and Jeffrey Simon, “Toward a Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region,” Institute for National Strategic Studies Occasional Paper 3, Washington, DC.: National Defense University Press, April 2006, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/Occassional_Papers/OCP3.pdf.
Jeffrey Simon, Black Sea Regional Security Cooperation: Building Bridges and Barriers (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 2006).
Nicholas Wood, “EU to Reduce Force in Bosnia,” International Herald Tribune, February 28, 2007, http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/01/europe/web.0301bosnia.php.
Thomas Friedman, International Herald Tribune, February 15, 2007.
A possible, if not the most likely, successor to Putin, Sergei Ivanov, has stated that U.S. acceptance of Russia’s BMD proposals “will quantitatively change Russian-U.S. relations. A new space for mutual trust will emerge. We may establish a real strategic partnership.” Cited in Edward Lozansky, “Is George Bush Boosting the Russian Military-Industrial Complex?” The Washington Times (July 10, 2007).
Abrahm Lustgarten, “How Shell Lost Control of Sakhalin,” Fortune, CNN (February 5, 2007), http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2007/02/05/8399125/index.htm.
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© 2007 Hall Gardner
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Gardner, H. (2007). The Uncoordinated NATO-EU “Double Enlargement”: Toward the Isolation of Russia?. In: Averting Global War. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230608733_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230608733_3
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