Abstract
Daily output from the hindcasts by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is analyzed to understand the skill of forecasting atmospheric variability on quasi-biweekly (QBW) time scale. Eight dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) modes identified by the extended empirical orthogonal function analysis are focused. In the CFSv2, QBW variability exhibits a significant weakening tendency with lead time for all seasons. For most QBWO modes, the variance drops to only 50 % of the initial value at lead time of 11–15 days. QBW variability has better prediction skill in the winter hemisphere than in the summer hemisphere. Skillful forecast can reach about 10–15 days for most modes but those in the winter hemisphere have better forecast skills. Among the eight QBWO modes, the North Pacific mode and the South Pacific (SP) mode have the highest forecast skills while the Asia–Pacific mode and the Central American mode have the lowest skills. For the Asia–Pacific and Central American modes, the forecasted QBWO phase shows an obvious eastward shift with increase in lead time compared to observations, indicating a smaller propagating speed. However, the predicted feature for the SP mode is more realistic. Air–sea coupling on the QBW time scale is perhaps responsible for the different prediction skills for different QBWO modes. In addition, most QBWO modes have better forecasting skills in El Niño years than in La Niña years. Different dynamical mechanisms for various QBWO modes may be partially responsible for the differences in prediction skill among different QBWO modes.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agudelo PA, Hoyos CD, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2009) Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability. Clim Dyn 32:855–872
Chen TC, Chen JM (1993) The 10–20-day mode of the 1979 Indian monsoon: its relation with the time variation of monsoon rainfall. Mon Weather Rev 121:2465–2482
Chen TC, Chen JM (1995) An observational study of the South China Sea monsoon during the 1979 summer: onset and life cycle. Mon Weather Rev 123:2295–2318
Chen TC, Yen MC, Weng SP (2000) Interaction between the summer monsoons in East Asia and the South China Sea: intraseasonal monsoon modes. J Atmos Sci 57:1373–1392
Duchon CE (1979) Lanczos filtering in one and two dimensions. J Appl Meteorol 18:1016–1022
Fu X, Wang B, Li T, McCreary JP (2003) Coupling between northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations and sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. J Atmos Sci 60:1733–1753
Fukutomi Y, Yasunari T (1999) 10–25 day intraseasonal variations of convection and circulation over East Asia and western North Pacific during early summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:753–769
Fukutomi Y, Yasunari T (2002) Tropical–extratropical interaction associated with the 10–25 day oscillation over the western Pacific during the northern summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 80:311–331
Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS, Xavier PK, Sengupta D (2003) Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys Res Lett 30:1431. doi:10.1029/2002GL016734
Gottschalck J, Wheeler M, Weickmann K, Vitart F, Savage N, Lin H, Hendon H, Waliser D, Sperber K, Prestrelo C, Nakagawa M, Flatau M, Higgins W (2010) A framework for assessing operational model MJO forecasts: a project of the CLIVAR Madden–Julian oscillation working group. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91(8):1247–1258
Hendon HH, Glick J (1997) Intraseasonal air–sea interaction in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans. J Clim 10:647–661
Jia X, Yang S (2013) Impacts of the quasi-biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific on East Asian subtropical monsoon during early summer. J Geophys Res 118. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50422
Jiang X, Lau NC (2008) Intraseasonal teleconnection between North American and western North Pacific monsoons with 20-day time scale. J Clim 21:2664–2678
Jiang X, Waliser DE (2009) Two dominant subseasonal variability modes of the eastern Pacific ITCZ. Geophys Res Lett 36:L04704. doi:10.1029/2008GL036820
Kemball-Cook S, Wang B (2001) Equatorial waves and air–sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 14:2923–2942
Kikuchi K, Wang B (2009) Global perspective of the quasi-biweekly oscillation. J Clim 22:1340–1359
Kiladis GN, Hall-McKim EA (2004) Intraseasonal modulation of precipitation over the North American monsoon region. In: Proceedings of the 15th symposium on global change and climate variations, Seattle, WA. Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/72428.pdf
Krishnamurti TN, Ardanuy P (1980) 10 to 20-day westward propagating mode and ‘‘breaks in the monsoons”. Tellus 32:15–26
Li CY, Zhou W, Chan JCL, Huang P (2012) Asymmetric modulation of the Western North Pacific cyclogenesis by the Madden-Julian Oscillation under ENSO conditions. J Clim 25:5374–5385
Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277
Lin A, Li T (2008) Energy spectrum characteristics of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations: climatology and variations during the ENSO developing and decaying phases. J Clim 21:6304–6320
Lin H, Brunet G, Derome J (2008) Forecast skill of the Madden–Julian oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models. Mon Weather Rev 136:4130–4149
Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40–50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708
Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global scale circulation cells in the tropics with 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123
Mao JY, Chan JCL (2005) Intraseasonal variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon. J Clim 18:2388–2402
Mullen SL, Schmitz JT, Rennó NO (1998) Intraseasonal variability of the summer monsoon over southeast Arizona. Mon Weather Rev 126:3016–3035
Rashid HA, Hendon HH, Wheeler MC, Alves O (2011) Prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system. Clim Dyn 36:649–661
Saha S et al (2006) The NCEP climate forecast system. J Clim 19:3483–3517
Saha S et al (2010) The NCEP Climate Forecast System reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057
Saha S et al (2013) The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J Clim (submitted)
Seo KH (2009) Statistical-dynamical prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation using NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS). Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.1845
Vitart F, Woolnough S, Balmaseda MA, Tompkins AM (2007) Monthly forecast of the Madden–Julian oscillation using a coupled GCM. Mon Weather Rev 135:2700–2715
Waliser DE, Lau KM, Kim JH (1999) The influence sea surface temperatures on the Madden–Julian oscillation: perturbation experiment. J Atmos Sci 56:333–358
Wang W, Xie P, Yoo SH, Xue Y, Kumar A, Wu X (2010) An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37:1601–1620
Weare BC, Nasstrom JS (1982) Examples of extended empirical orthogonal function analyses. Mon Weather Rev 110:481–485
Webster PJ (1983) Mechanisms of monsoon low-frequency variability: surface hydrological effects. J Atmos Sci 40:2110–2124
Wen M, Zhang R (2007) Role of the quasi-biweekly oscillation in the onset of convection over the Indochina Peninsula. Q J R Meteorol Soc 133:433–444
Wen M, Yang S, Higgins RW, Zhang R (2011) Characteristics of the dominant modes of atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation over tropical–subtropical Americas. J Clim 24:3956–3970
Woolnough SJ, Slingo JM, Hoskins BJ (2000) The relationship between convection and sea surface temperature on intraseasonal timescale. J Clim 13:2086–2104
Wu PL, Li CY (1990) The 10–20 day oscillation in the atmosphere. Collection of atmospheric science. Science Press, Beijing, pp 147–159 (in Chinese)
Wu PL, Luo HB (1987) An energetic study of low frequency oscillation in the tropical troposphere. J Trop Meteorol 3(2):105–112 (in Chinese)
Wu RG, Kirtman BP, Pegion K (2008) Local rainfall-SST relationship on subseasonal time scales in satellite observations and CFS. Geophys Res Lett 35:L22706. doi:10.1029/2008GL035883
Xue Y, Huang B, Hu ZZ, Kumar A, Wen C, Behringer D, Nadiga S (2010) An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn 37:2511–2539
Yang J, Wang B, Wang B, Bao Q (2010) Biweekly and 21–30-day variations of the subtropical summer monsoon rainfall over the lower reach of the Yangtze River Basin. J Clim 23:1146–1159
Yasunari T (1981) Structure of an Indian summer monsoon system with around 40-day period. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 59:336–354
Zhou W, Chan JCL (2005) Intraseasonal oscillations and the South China Sea summer monsoon onset. Int J Climatol 25:1585–1609
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2012CB955902), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905035), Zhongshan University “985 Project” Phase 3 and the Key Technologies R&D Program of China (2009BAC51B05).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This paper is a contribution to the Topical Collection on Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 is a coupled global climate model and was implemented by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in seasonal forecasting operations in March 2011. This Topical Collection is coordinated by Jin Huang, Arun Kumar, Jim Kinter and Annarita Mariotti.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jia, X., Yang, S., Li, X. et al. Prediction of global patterns of dominant quasi-biweekly oscillation by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Clim Dyn 41, 1635–1650 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1877-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1877-7