Abstract
We investigated the changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall under global warming based on the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 runs of 18 models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Because the mechanism of rainfall changes under global warming studied in previous studies is widely based on the moisture budget decompositions (MBDs), we first evaluated the applicability of three MBDs for the changes in the EASM rainfall, which are two complete MBDs in Chou et al. (J Clim 22(8):1982–2005; Chou et al., J Clim 22(8):1982–2005, 2009) and Seager et al. (J Clim 23(17):4651–4668; Seager et al., J Clim 23(17):4651–4668, 2010), and the simplified MBD in Huang et al. (Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361; Huang et al., Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361, 2013). The results show that the simplified MBD in Huang et al. (Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361, 2013) is applicable for the EASM rainfall changes, providing an efficient way to study the EASM rainfall changes, which is used in this study. The EASM rainfall changes can be well explained by two components: the thermodynamic component due to the increase in specific humidity and the dynamic component due to the changes in EASM circulation changes. The thermodynamic component is quite robust among the models, whereas the dynamic component with the circulation changes contributes the major uncertainties of the EASM rainfall changes. Moreover, the apparent intermodel difference in the background circulation is another important source of the EASM rainfall changes. The results imply that the background and changes of the EASM circulation are the key factors for further narrowing the uncertainties of the projected EASM rainfall changes.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bony S, Bellon G, Klocke D, Sherwood S, Fermepin S, Denvil S (2013) Robust direct effect of carbon dioxide on tropical circulation and regional precipitation. Nat Geosci 6(6):447–451
Brown JR, Colman RA, Moise AF, Smith IN (2013) The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(22):12,458–12,475
Brown JR, Moise AF, Colman R, Zhang H (2016) Will a warmer world mean a wetter or drier Australian monsoon? J Clim 29(12):4577–4596
Chen H, Sun J (2013) Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon precipitation under rcp scenario. Meteorol Atmos Phys 121(1–2):55–77
Chen XL, Zhou TJ (2015) Distinct effects of global mean warming and regional sea surface warming pattern on projected uncertainty in the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 42(21):9433–9439
Chou C, Lan C-W (2012) Changes in the annual range of precipitation under global warming. J Clim 25(1):222–235
Chou C, Neelin JD (2004) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J Clim 17:2688–2701
Chou C, Neelin JD, Chen C-A, Tu J-Y (2009) Evaluating the “rich-get-richer” mechanism in tropical precipitation change under global warming. J Clim 22(8):1982–2005
Endo H, Kitoh A (2014) Thermodynamic and dynamic effects on regional monsoon rainfall changes in a warmer climate. Geophys Res Lett 41(5):1704–1711
Endo H, Kitoh A. In: de Carvalho LMV (2016) Projecting changes of the Asian summer monsoon through the twenty-first century. In: Jones C (ed) The monsoons and climate change: Observations and modeling. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp 47–66
Fasullo J (2012) A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate. Clim Dyn 39(5):1137–1147
Hawkins E, Sutton R (2009) The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90(8):1095–1107
He J, Soden BJ, Kirtman B (2014) The robustness of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation response to future anthropogenic surface warming. Geophys Res Lett 41(7):2614–2622
Held IM, Soden BJ (2006) Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming. J Clim 19:5686–5699
Hsu P-c, Li T, Luo J-J, Murakami H, Kitoh A, Zhao M (2012) Increase of global monsoon area and precipitation under global warming: A robust signal? Geophys Res Lett 39(6):L06701
Hsu P-c, Li T, Murakami H, Kitoh A (2013) Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1247–1260
Huang P (2014) Regional response of annual-mean tropical rainfall to global warming. Atmos Sci Lett 15(2):103–109
Huang P (2016) Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part I: Multimodel ensemble results. J Clim 29(16):5763–5778
Huang P (2017) Time-varying response of ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall to global warming in CMIP5 models. Part II: Intermodel uncertainty. J Clim 30(2):595–608
Huang P, Chen D (2017) Enlarged asymmetry of tropical Pacific rainfall anomalies induced by El Niño and La Niña under global warming. J Clim 30(4):1327–1343
Huang P, Xie S-P (2015) Mechanisms of change in ENSO-induced tropical Pacific rainfall variability in a warming climate. Nat Geosci 8(12):922–926
Huang P, Xie S-P, Hu K, Huang G, Huang R (2013) Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming. Nat Geosci 6(5):357–361
Kamae Y, Watanabe M, Kimoto M, Shiogama H (2014) Summertime land–sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warming climate—part II: Importance of CO2-induced continental warming. Clim Dyn 43(9–10):2569–2583
Kent C, Chadwick R, Rowell DP (2015) Understanding uncertainties in future projections of seasonal tropical precipitation. J Clim 28(11):4390–4413
Kimoto M (2005) Simulated change of the east Asian circulation under global warming scenario. Geophys Res Lett 32 (16)
Kitoh A, Endo H, Krishna Kumar K, Cavalcanti IFA, Goswami P, Zhou T (2013) Monsoons in a changing world: A regional perspective in a global context. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(8):3053–3065
Kripalani RH, Oh JH, Chaudhari HS (2007) Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to doubled atmospheric CO2: Coupled climate model simulations and projections under IPCC AR4. Theor Appl Climatol 87(1–4):1–28
Kusunoki S, Arakawa O (2012) Change in the precipitation intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon projected by CMIP3 models. Clim Dyn 38(9–10):2055–2072
Li XQ, Ting MF, Li CH, Henderson N (2015) Mechanisms of Asian summer monsoon changes in response to anthropogenic forcing in CMIP5 models. J Clim 28(10):4107–4125
Long S-M, Xie S-P (2015) Intermodel variations in projected precipitation change over the North Atlantic: Sea surface temperature effect. Geophys Res Lett 42(10):4158–4165
Long S-M, Xie S-P, Liu W (2016) Uncertainty in tropical rainfall projections: Atmospheric circulation effect and the ocean coupling. J Clim 29(7):2671–2687
Ma J, Xie S-P (2013) Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: A source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation. J Clim 26(8):2482–2501
Meehl GA, Washington WM (1993) South Asian summer monsoon variability in a model with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Science 260:1101–1104
Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA (2010) Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim 23(17):4651–4668
Seager R, Naik N, Vogel L (2012) Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J Clim 25(9):3355–3372
Shepherd TG (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat Geosci 7(10):703–708
Sooraj KP, Terray P, Mujumdar M (2015) Global warming and the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation: Assessments from the CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 45(1–2):233–252
Sooraj KP, Terray P, Xavier P (2016) Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: Assessments using CMIP5 models. Clim Dyn 46(11–12):4003–4025
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498
Tedeschi RG, Collins M (2016) The influence of ENSO on South American precipitation: Simulation and projection in CMIP5 models. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4919
Ueda H, Iwai A, Kuwako K, Hori ME (2006) Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs. Geophys Res Lett 33(6):L06703
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2014CB953904), the Natural Science Foundation of China (41425019 and 41661144016), the public science and technology research funds projects of ocean (201505013) and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP5, and the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1) for producing and making available their model output.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhou, S., Huang, G. & Huang, P. Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming: moisture budget decompositions and the sources of uncertainty. Clim Dyn 51, 1363–1373 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3959-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3959-4