Abstract
Design is the most influential element in the pathway to statistical inference. Designs for capture–mark–recapture (CMR) studies have become more diverse and complex during the past 50 years. I review the history of CMR designs developed for discrete time models with a focus on the assumptions of those designs, the parameters that can be estimated, the question that can be addressed, and the interrelationship among designs. CMR designs can be used to address questions in a variety of disciplines including population dynamics, evolutionary ecology, life-history, and community ecology. Methodological advances have also enabled investigators to consider designs that include nearly all common sources of CMR data simultaneously. CMR designs have been generalized to account for many assumptions; however, more emphasis needs to placed on use of auxiliary variables to increase precision and address model assumptions. CMR designs also need to be placed in the larger context of experimentation. Finally, development of more specific designs to fully utilize data resulting from emerging technologies is needed.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alisauskas RT, Lindberg MS (2002) Effects of neckbands on survival and fidelity of white-fronted and Canada geese captured as non-breeding adults. J Appl Stat 29:521–538
Anderson DR, Burnham KP, White GC, Otis DL (1983) Density estimation of small-mammal populations using a trapping web and distance sampling methods. Ecology 64:674–680
Anderson MG, Lindberg MS, Emery RB (2001) Probability of survival and breeding for juvenile female canvasbacks. J Wildl Manag 65:403–415
Anderson DR, Cooch EG, Gutierrez RJ, Krebs CJ, Lindberg MS, Pollock KH, Rubic CA, Shenk TM (2003) Rigorous science: suggestions on how to raise the bar. Wildl Soc Bull 31:296–305
Armstrup SC, McDonald TL, Manly BFJ (eds) (2005) Handbook of capture–recapture analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Arnason AR (1972) Parameter estimation from mark-recapture experiments on two populations subject to migration and death. Res Popul Ecol 13:97–113
Arnason AR (1973) The estimation of population size, migration rates, and survival in a stratified population. Res Popul Ecol 15:1–8
Bailey LL, Kendall WL, Church DR, Wilbur HM (2004) Estimating survival and breeding probabilities for pond-breeding amphibians using a modified robust design. Ecology 85:2456–2466
Bailey LL, Kendall WL, Church DR (2009) Exploring extensions to multi-state models with multiple unobservable states. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 693–709
Barker RJ (1997) Joint modeling of live-recapture, tag-resight, and tag-recovery data. Biometrics 53:666–677
Barker RJ, Kavalieris L (2001) Efficiency gain from auxiliary data requiring additional nuisance parameters. Biometrics 57:563–566
Barker RJ, White GC (2001) Joint analysis of live and dead encounters of marked animals. In: Field R, Warren RJ, Okarma H, Sievert PR (eds) Wildlife, land, and people: priorities for the 21st century. Proc Second Intl Wildl Manag Cong. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, pp 361–367
Barker RJ, White GC, McDougal M (2005) Movement of paradise shelduck between molt sites: a joint multistate-dead recovery mark recapture model. J Wildl Manag 69:1194–1201
Bart J, Robson DS (1982) Estimating survivorship when the subjects are visited periodically. Ecol 63:1078–1090
Bellrose F (1945) Ratio of reported to unreported duck bands in Illinois. J Wildl Manag 9:254
Besbeas P, Borysiewisc RS, Morgn BJT (2009) Completing the ecological jigsaw. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 513–540
Boulanger J, Kendall KC, Stetz JB, Roon DA, Waits LP, Paetkau (2009) Multiple data sources improve DNA-based mark-recapture population estimates of grizzly bears. Ecol Appl 18:577–589
Brownie C, Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Robson DS (1985) Statistical inference from band recovery data—a handbook, 2nd edn. US Fish and Wildlife Service Resource Publication no. 156, Washington, DC, 305 p
Brownie C, Hines JE, Nichols JD, Pollock KH, Hestbeck JB (1993) Capture–recapture studies for multiple strata including non-Markovian transitions. Biometrics 49:1173–1187
Buckland ST, Burnham KP, Augustin NH (1997) Model selection: an integral part of inference. Biom 53:603–618
Bunck CM, Pollock KM (1993) Estimating survival of radio-tagged birds. In: Lebreton J-D, North PM (eds) Marked individual in the study of bird populations. Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, pp 51–63
Burnham KP (1990) Survival analysis of recovery data from birds ringed as young: efficiency of analyses when number of rings are known. Ring 13:115–132
Burnham KP (1993) A theory for combined analysis of ring recovery and recapture data. In: Lebreton J-D, North PM (eds) Marked individuals in the study of bird population. Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel, pp 199–213
Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, New York
Burnham KP, Anderson DR, White GC, Brownie C, Pollock KH (1987) Design and analysis methods for fish survival experiments based on release-recapture. Am Fish Soc Monogr 5:1–437
Carothers AD (1979) Quantifying unequal catchability and its effect on survival estimates in an actual population. J Anim Ecol 48:863–869
Chao A (1989) Estimating population size for sparse data in capture–recapture experiments. Biometrics 45:427–438
Choquet RA, Reboult M, Pradel R, Gimenez O, Lebreton J-D (2004) M-SURGE: new software specifically designed for multistate capture–recapture models. Anim Biodivers Conserv 27:207–215
Cilimburg AB, Lindberg MS, Tewksbury JJ, Heile SJ (2002) Effects of dispersal on survival probability of adult Yellow Warblers (Dendroica petechia). Auk 119:778–789
Cochran WG (1983) Planning and analysis of observational studies. Wiley, New York
Conn PB, Cooch EG (2009) Multistate capture–recapture analysis under imperfect state observation: an application to disease modeling. J Appl Ecol 46:486–492
Conn PB, Kendall WL, Samuel MD (2004) A general model for the analysis of mark-resight, mark-recapture, and band-recovery data under tag loss. Biometrics 60:900–909
Conroy MR, Williams BK (1981) Sensitivity of band-reporting rate estimates to violation of assumptions. J Wildl Manag 45:789–792
Conroy MJ, Hines JE, Williams BK (1989) Procedures for the analysis of band-recovery data and user instructions for program MULT. US Fish and Wildlife Service Resource Publication no. 175
Cook TD, Campbell DT (1979) Quasi-experimentation: design and analysis issues for field settings. Houghton-Mifflin, Boston
Cormack RM (1964) Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animals. Biometrika 51:429–438
Devineau O, Choquet R, Lebreton J-D (2006) Planning capture–recapture studies: straightforward precision, bias, and power calculations. Wildl Soc Bull 34:1028–1035
Efford MG, Warburton B, Coleman MC, Barker RJ (2005) A field test of two methods for density estimation. Wildl Soc Bull 33:731–738
Efford MG, Borchers DL, Byrom AE (2009) Density estimation by spatially explicit capture–recapture: likelihood-based methods. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 255–269
Fisher RA (1960) The design of experiments, 7th edn. Oliver and Boyd, London
Fujiwara M, Caswell H (2002) Estimating population projection matrices from multi-stage mark-recapture data. Ecology 83:3257–3265
Garton EO, Wisdom MJ, Leban FA, Johnson BK (2001) Experimental design for radiotelemetry studies. In: Millspaugh JJ, Marzluff JM (eds) Design and analysis of wildlife radiotelemetry studies. Aca Press, San Diego, pp 329–350
Heisey DM, Shaffer TL, White GC (2007) The ABC’s of nest survival: theory and application from a biostatistical perspective. Stud Avi Bio 34:13–33
Hestbeck JB (1995) Bias in transition-specific survival and movement probabilities estimated using capture–recapture data. J Appl Stat 22:737–750
Hestbeck JB, Nichols JD, Malecki RA (1991) Estimates of movement and site fidelity using mark–resight data of wintering Canada geese. Ecol 72:523–533
Hines JE, Kendall WL, Nichols JD (2003) On the use of robust design with transient capture–recapture models. Auk 120:1151–1158
Hurlbert SH (1984) Pseudoreplication and the design of ecological field experiments. Ecol Monogr 54:187–211
Hwang WD, Chao A (1995) Quantifying the effects of unequal catchability on Jolly-Seber estimators via sample coverage. Biometrics 51:128–141
Joe M, Pollock KH (2002) Separation of survival and movement rates in multi-state tag-return can capture–recapture models. J Appl Stat 29:373–384
Johnson DH (1979) Estimating nest success: the Mayfield method and an alternative. Auk 96:651–661
Johnson DH (2008) In defense of indices: the case of bird surveys. J Wildl Manag 72:857–868
Jolly GM (1965) Explicit estimates from capture–recapture data with both death and immigration stochastic model. Biometrika 52:225–247
Kendall WL (1999) Robustness of closed capture–recapture methods to violation of the closure assumption. Ecology 80:2517–2525
Kendall WL (2004) Coping with unobservable and mis-classified states in capture–recapture studies. Anim Biodivers Conserv 27:97–107
Kendall WL (2009) One size does not fit all: adapting mark-recapture and occupancy models for state uncertainty. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 765–780
Kendall WL, Bjorkland R (2001) Using open robust design models to estimate temporary emigration from capture–recapture data. Biometrics 57:1113–1122
Kendall WL, Nichols JD (1995) On the use of secondary capture–recapture samples to estimate temporary emigration and breeding proportions. J Appl Stat 22:751–762
Kendall WL, Pollock KH (1992) The Robust design in capture–recapture studies: a review and evaluation by Monte Carlo simulation. In: McCullough, Barrett RD (eds) Wildlife 2001: populations. Elsevier, London, pp 31–43
Kendall WL, White GC (2009) A cautionary note on substituting spatial subunits for repeated temporal sampling in studies of site occupancy. J Appl Ecol 46:1182–1188
Kendall WL, Pollock KH, Brownie C (1995) A likelihood-based approach to capture–recapture estimation of demographic parameters under the robust design. Biometrics 51:293–308
Kendall WL, Nichols JD, Hines JE (1997) Estimating temporary emigration and breeding proportions using capture–recapture data with Pollock’s Robust Design. Ecology 78:563–578
Kendall WL, Hines JE, Nichols JD (2003) Adjusting multi-state capture–recapture models for mis-classification bias: manatee breeding proportions. Ecology 84:1058–1066
Kendall WL, Langtimm CA, Beck CA, Runge MC (2004) Mark-recapture analysis for estimating manatee reproductive rates. Mar Mamm Sci 20:424–437
Kendall WL, Conn PB, Hines JE (2006) Combining multi-state capture–recapture data with tag recoveries to estimate demographic parameters. Ecology 87:169–177
Kendall WL, Converse SJ, Doherty PF Jr, Naughton MB, Anders A, Hines JE, Flint E (2009) Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds. Ecol Appl 19:55–68
Klett AT, Duebbert HF, Faanes CA, Higgins KF (1986) Techniques for study nest success of ducks in upland habitats in the prairie pothole region. US Fish and Wildlife Service Resource Publication no. 158
Lebreton J-D, Pradel R (2002) Multistate recapture models: modelling incomplete individual histories. J Appl Stat 29:353–369
Lebreton J-D, Burnham KP, Clobert J, Anderson DR (1992) Modeling survival and testing biological hypotheses using marked animals: case studies and recent advances. Ecol Monogr 62:67–118
Lebreton J-D, Almeras T, Pradel R (1999) Competing events, mixtures of information and multistratum recapture models. Bird Study Suppl 46:39–46
Lincoln FC (1930) Calculating waterfowl abundance on the basis of banding returns. US Department of Agriculture Circular No. 118:1–4
Lindberg MS, Rexstad EA (2002) Capture–recapture sampling designs. In: El-Shaarawi AH, Piegorsch WW (eds) Encyclopedia of environmetrics, 1st edn. John Wiley and Sons Ltd, Chichester, pp 251–262
Lindberg MS, Walker J (2007) Satellite telemetry in avian research: sample size considerations. J Wildl Manag 71:1002–1009
Lindberg MS, Kendall WL, Hines JE, Anderson MG (2001) Combining band recovery data and Pollock’s robust design to model temporary and permanent emigration. Biometrics 57:273–281
Lukacs PM, Burnham KP (2005) A review of capture–recapture methods applicable to DNA-based noninvasive sampling. Mol Ecol 14:3909–3919
Lukacs PM, Burnham KP, Dreher BP, Scribner KY, Winterstein SR (2009) Extending the robust design for DNA-based capture–recapture data incorporating genotyping error and laboratory data. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 711–726
MacKenzie DI, Royle JA (2005) Designing efficient occupancy studies: general advice and tips on allocation of survey effort. J Appl Ecol 42:1105–1114
MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Lachman GB, Droege S, Royle JA, Langtimm CA (2002) Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecol 83:2248–2255
MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Hines JE, Knutson MG, Franklin AD (2003) Estimating site occupancy, colonization and local extinction when a species is detected imperfectly. Ecology 84:2200–2207
MacKenzie DI, Bailey LL, Nichols JD (2004) Investigating species co-occurrence patterns when species are detected imperfectly. J Anim Ecol 73:546–555
MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Royle JA, Pollock KH, Hines JE, Bailey LL (2005) Occupancy estimation and modeling: inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence. Elsevier, San Diego
MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Seamans ME, Gutiérrez RJ (2009) Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection. Ecology 90:823–835
Manly BFJ (1992) The design and analysis of research studies. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Mayfield H (1961) Nesting success calculated from exposure. Wilson Bull. 73:255–261
McClintock BT, White GC (2009) A less field-intensive robust design for estimating demographic parameters with mark-resight data. Ecology 90:313–320
McClintock BT, White GC, Burnham KP, Pryde MA (2009) A generalized mixed effects model of abundance for mark-resight data when sampling is without replacement. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 271–290
McKelvey KS, Pearson D (2001) Population estimation with sparse data: the role of estimators versus indices revisited. Can J Zool 79:1754–1765
McPherson RJ, Arnold TW, Armstrong LM, Schwarz CJ (2003) Estimating the nest-success rate and the number of nests initiated by radiomarked mallards. J Wildl Manag 67:843–851
Morrison ML, Block WM, Strickland MD, Kendall WL (2001) Wildlife study design. Springer, New York
Murray DL, Fuller MR (2000) A critical review of the effects of marking on the biology of vertebrates. In: Boitani L, Fuller T (eds) Research techniques in animal ecology: controversies and consequences. Columbia University Press, New York, pp 15–64
Nichols JD (1991) Responses of North American duck populations to harvest. In: Perrins CM, Lebreton J-D, Hirons GJM (eds) Bird population studies: relevance to conversation and management. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 498–525
Nichols JD (1996) Sources of variation in migratory movements of animal populations: statistical inference and a selective review of empirical results for birds. In: Rhodes OE Jr, Chesser RK, Smith MH (eds) Population dynamics in ecological space and time. University Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 147–197
Nichols JD, Coffman CJ (1999) Demographic parameter estimation for experimental landscape studies of small mammal populations. In: Barrett GW, Peles JD (eds) Landscape ecology of small mammals. Springer, New York, pp 287–309
Nichols JD, Kendall WL (1995) The use of multistate capture–recapture models to address questions of evolutionary ecology. J Appl Stat 22:835–846
Nichols JD, Boulinier T, Hines JE, Pollock KH, Sauer JR (1998) Estimating rates of local species extinction, colonization, and turnover in animal communities. Ecol Appl 8:1213–1225
Nichols JD, Kendall WL, Hines JE, Spendelow JA (2004) Estimation of sex-specific survival from capture–recapture data when sex is not always known. Ecology 85:3192–3201
Nichols JD, Hines JE, MacKenzie DI, Seamens ME, Gutiérrez (2007) Occupancy estimation with multiple states and state uncertainty. Ecology 88:1395–1400
Nichols JD, Thomas L, Conn PB (2009) Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future direction. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York., pp 201–235
Otis DL, White GC (1999) Autocorrelation of location estimates in the analysis of radiotracking data. J Wildl Manag 63:1039–1044
Otis DL, Burnham KP, White GC, Anderson DR (1978) Statistical inference from capture data on closed animal populations. Wildl. Monogr. 62:1–135
Platt JR (1964) Strong inference. Sci 146:347–353
Pollock KH (1982) A capture–recapture design robust to unequal probability of capture. J Wildl Manag 46:757–760
Pollock KH (2002) The use of auxiliary variables in capture–recapture modeling: an overview. J Appl Stat 29:85–102
Pollock KH, Winterstein SR, Conroy MJ (1989a) Estimation and analysis of survival distributions for radio-tagged animals. Biometrics 45:99–109
Pollock KH, Winterstein SR, Bunck CM, Curtis PD (1989b) Survival analysis in telemetry studies: the staggered entry design. J Wildl Manag 53:7–15
Pollock KH, Nichols JD, Brownie C, Hines JE (1990) Statistical inference for capture–recapture experiments. Wildl Monogr 107:1–97
Powell LA, Conroy MJ, Hines JE, Nichols JD, Krementz DG (2000) Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radio telemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates. J Wildl Manag 64:302–313
Pradel R (1993) Flexibility in survival analysis from recapture data: handling trap-dependence. In: Lebreton J-D, North PM (eds) Marked individuals in the study of bird population. Birkhaüser, Basel, pp 29–37
Pradel R (2005) Multievent: an extension of multistate capture–recapture models to uncertain states. Biometrics 61:442–447
Pradel R, Hine JE, Lebreton J-D, Nichols JD (1997) Capture–recapture survival models taking account of transients. Biometrics 53:60–72
Raveling DG (1966) Factors affecting age ratios of samples of Canada geese caught with cannon-nets. J Wildl Manag 30:682–691
Robson DS, Reiger HA (1964) Sample size in Petersen mark-recapture experiments. Trans Am Fish Soc 93:215–226
Romesburg HC (1981) Wildlife science: gaining reliable knowledge. J Wildl Manag 45:293–313
Rosenbaum PR (1995) Observational studies. Springer, New York
Rotella JJ (2007) Modeling nest-survival data: recent improvements and future directions. Stud Avi Bio 34:145–148
Rotella JJ, Taper ML, Hansen AJ (2000) Correcting nesting success estimates for possible observer effects: maximum likelihood estimates of daily survival rates with reduced bias. Auk 117:92–109
Rotella JJ, Taper ML, Stephens SE, Lindberg MS (2007) Extending methods for modeling heterogeneity in nest-survival data using generalized mixed models. Stud Avi Bio 34:34–44
Royle JA, Garrettson PR (2005) The effects of reward band value on the mid-continent mallard band reporting rate. J Wildl Manag 69:800–804
Royle JA, Link WA (2005) A general class of multinomial mixture models for anuran calling survey data. Ecology 86:2505–2512
Rudnick JA, Katzner TE, Bragin EA, Rhodes OE Jr, DeWoody JA (2005) Using naturally shed feathers for individual identification, genetic parentage analyses, and population monitoring in a an endangered Eastern Imperial Eagle (Aquila heliaca) population from Kazakhstan. Mol Ecol 14:2959–2967
Scheaffer RL, Mendenhall W III, Ott RL (1996) Elementary survey sampling, 5th edn. Duxbury Press, Belmont
Schofield MR, Barker RJ (2009) A further step towards the mother-of-all-models: flexibility and functionality in the modeling of capture–recapture data. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 677–689
Schwarz CJ (2009) Migration and movement–The next step. In: Thomson DL, Cooch EG, Conroy MJ (eds) Modeling demographic processes in marked populations. Springer, New York, pp 323–347
Schwarz CJ, Stobo WT (1997) Estimating temporary migration using the robust design. Biometrics 53:253–269
Schwarz CJ, Schweigert J, Arnason AN (1993) Using tag-recovery data to estimate migration rates. Biometrics 49:177–194
Seber GAF (1965) A note on the multiple recapture census. Biometrika 52:249–259
Seber GAF (1970) Estimating age-specific survival and reporting rates for adult birds from band returns. Biometrika 57:313–318
Seber GAF (1971) Estimating age-specific survival rates for birds from bird-band returns when the reporting rate is constant. Biometrika 58:491–497
Seber GAF (1982) The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters, 2nd edn. Macmillan, New York
Smith DR, Anderson DR (1987) Effects of lengthy ringing periods on estimators of annual survival. Acta Ornithologica 23:69–76
Stanley TR (2000) Modeling and estimation of stage-specific daily survival probabilities of nests. Ecology 81:2048–2053
Szymczak MR, Rexstad EA (1991) Harvest distribution and survival of a gadwall population. J Wildl Manag 55:592–600
Tavecchia G, Pradel R, Lebreton J-D, Johnson AR, Mondain-Monval J-Y (2001) The effect of lead exposure on survival of adult mallards in the Camarue, southern France. J Appl Ecol 38:1197–1207
Webster MS, Marra PP, Haig SM, Bensch S, Holmes RT (2002) Links between worlds: unraveling migratory connectivity. Trends Ecol Evol 17:76–83
White GC (2002) Discussant: the use of auxiliary variables in capture–recapture modeling: an overview. J Appl Stat 29:103–106
White GC, Burnham KP (1999) Program MARK: survival estimation from populations of marked animals. Bird Study Suppl 46:120–138
White GC, Garrott RA (1990) Analysis of wildlife radio-tracking data. Academic Press, New York
White GC, Anderson DR, Burnham KP, Otis DL (1982) Capture–recapture and removal methods for sampling closed populations. Los Alamos Nat Lab Report LA-8787-NERP, Los Alamos
Williams BK, Nichols JD, Conroy MJ (2002) Analysis and management of animal populations. Acad Press, San Diego
Yoccoz NG, Nichols JD, Boulinier T (2001) Monitoring of biological diversity in space and time. Trends Ecol Evol 16:446–453
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank the EURING scientific committee for the opportunity to develop this manuscript. P. Doherty, W. Kendall, W. Link, M. Schaub, and an anonymous reviewer provided helpful comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by M. Schaub.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lindberg, M.S. A review of designs for capture–mark–recapture studies in discrete time. J Ornithol 152 (Suppl 2), 355–370 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-010-0533-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-010-0533-9