Projecting Mortality in Population Forecasts in the Netherlands

Abstract

The most striking development of Dutch mortality in recent years has been the continuous rise in life expectancy for men and the stagnation for women. Another striking feature is the increase in mortality of the elderly aged 80 years or over which contrasts with the continuous declines observed in most other western European countries. When predicting future mortality, these features should be taken into careful consideration in order to present and justify reasonable forecasts.

This chapter reviews the method and assumptions of the mortality forecasts made as part of the 1998 official population projection for the Netherlands. It begins with an overview of trends in life expectancy and in mortality by age in the Netherlands (Section 9.1). Section 9.2 presents a discussion of the most important determinants of mortality considered in the official Dutch mortality forecasts. In Sections 9.3 and 9.4, some methodological issues are discussed, such as selection processes in cohorts and the usefulness of mortality by causes of death in forecasting mortality. Section 9.5 summarises the prospects for mortality developments in the future. On the basis of this information, it is assumed that life expectancy will continue to rise for both sexes, although more for men than for women, up to 80 years for men and 83 years for women by 2050. The death rates of people between the ages of 30 and 60, in particular, are expected to drop significantly. Finally, Sections 9.6 and 9.7 discuss the method, assumptions, and uncertainty of these forecasts. With respect to the uncertainty, the 95 per cent forecast interval for life expectancy at birth in 2050 is assumed to be between 74 and 86 years for men and between 77 and 89 years for women.