Abstract
The ability to see the world from another person’s perspective is critical for mutual understanding and conflict prevention and resolution. It allows us to understand others’ subjective perspectives, and to predict, to some extent, their reactions to particular situations or events. This then allows us to identify specific situations or actions which are likely to trigger desirable (or undesirable) behavior, and thereby aid in the prevention and resolution of potential conflicts. A key component of these capabilities is the understanding of the other individuals’ values and motivations, patterns of reasoning, and behavior determined by their personalities, and individual reactions that may occur as a result of specific emotions. This type of understanding in turn necessitates understanding how different emotions and traits influence decision-making, and how these influences may result in specific decision-making styles or biases. This chapter describes a generic methodology for representing the effects of multiple, interacting emotional states and personality traits on decision- making, and an associated computational cognitive architecture which implements this methodology. I present results of an evaluation experiment that demonstrates the architecture’s ability to model individual tactical decision- making and produce observable behavior differences resulting from distinct individual profiles. I then discuss how the methodology and architecture would be extended to model strategic, political decision-making, and how it could support a variety of activities geared towards international conflict prevention and resolution. I conclude with specific theoretical and pragmatic challenges associated with this approach to computer-aided conflict prevention and resolution.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ajzen, I., 2001, Nature and operation of attitudes, Annual Review of Psychology 55:27–58.
Ajzen, I., and Fishbein, M., 2000, Attitudes and the attitude-behavior relation: reasoned and automatic processes, in European Review of Social Psychology, Stroebe, W., . Hew-stone, M., eds., Wiley, Chichester, England.
Ajzen, I., 1988, Attitudes, Personality and Behavior Dorsey Press, Chicago.
Blaney, P. H., 1986, Affect and memory, Psychological Bulletin 99:229–246.
Bower, G. H., 1981, Mood and memory, American Psychologist 36:129–148.
Breazeal, C., 2003, Emotion and sociable humanoid robots, International Journal of Human-Computer Studies 59:119–155.
Busemeyer, J. R., and Townsend, J. T., 1993, Decision field theory: a dynamic-cognitive approach to decision making in an uncertain environment, Psychological Review 100:432–459.
Cannon-Bowers, J. A., and Salas, E., 1998, Making Decisions Under Stress, Americal Psychological ssociation, Washington, DC.
Clore, G. L., 1994, Why emotions require cognition, in The Nature of Emotion, Ekman, P., Davidson, R. J. eds., Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Cohen, M. S., 1993, Three paradigms for viewing decision biases, in Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods, Klein, G. A., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R., and Zsambok, C. E., eds., Ablex, Norwood, NJ.
Collyer, S. C., and Malecki, G. S., 1998, Tactical decision making under stress: history and overview, in Making Decisions Under Stress, Cannon-Bowers, J. A., and Salas, E., eds., American Psychological Association, Washington, DC.
Costa, P. T., and McCrae, R. R, 1992, Four ways five factors are basic, Personality & Individual Differences 13: 653–665.
Damasio, A. R., 1994, Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain, Putnam, New York.
Damasio, A. R., 2003, Looking for Spinoza: Joy, Sorrow and the Feeling Brain, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York.
Dawes, R. M., 1995, The nature of human nature: an empirical case for withholding judg-ment-perhaps indefinitely, Political Psychology 16: 81–97.
Deckert, J. C., Entin, E. B., Entin, E. E., MacMillan, J., and Serfaty, D., 1994, Military command decision making expertise, Report 631, Alphatech, Inc., Burlington, MA.
Edland, A., 1989, On cognitive processes under time stress: A selective review of the literature on time stress and related stress, Reports from the Dept. of Psychology, University of Stockholm.
Endsley, M .R., 1995, Toward a theory of situation awareness in dynamic systems, Human Factors 37: 32–64.
Eysenck, M. W., 1997, Anxiety and Cognition: A Unified Theory. Psychology Press, Hove, E. Sussex.
Eysenck, H. J., 1991, Dimensions of personality: the biosocial approach to personality, in Explorations in temperament, Strelau, J., and Angleitner, A., eds., Plenum, London, pp. 87–103.
Forgas, J. P., 2003, Affective influences on attitudes and judgments, in Handbook of Affective Sciences, Davidson, R. J., Scherer, K. R., Goldsmith, H. H., eds., Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Gasper, K. and Clore, G. L., 2002, Atttending to the big picture: mood and global versus local processing of visual information, Psychological Science 13:34.
George, A., 1979, Cognitive beliefs and decision-making behavior, in Psychological Models in International Politics, Falkowski, L., ed., Westview Press (Praeger), Boulder, CO.
Grove, W. M., and Meehl., P. E., 1996, Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: the clinical-statistical controversy, Psychology, Public Review, and Law 2: 293–323.
Hermann, M. G., 1986, Political Psychology: Contemporary Problems and Issues, Josey-Bass Inc., Publishers, San Francisco, CA.
Hermann, M., Unpublished, A Handbook for the Measurement of Leader Personality.
Hofstede, G., 1991, Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind, McGraw Hill, NY.
Holsti, O. R., 1977, The ‘operational code’ as an approach to the analysis of belief systems, Final report to the National Science Foundation, Grant # SC 75-15368, Duke University, Durham, NC.
Howard, R., Meyer, J., and Spetzler, C., 2003, Garbage in, garbage out: reducing biases in decision-making. http://www.sdg.com/home.nsf/sdg/eBriefings–eBriefingArchive-Reducing Biases.
Hudlicka, E., 2003, Modeling effects of behavior moderators on performance: evaluation of the MAMID methodology and architecture, in Proceedings of BRIMS-12, Phoenix, AZ.
Hudlicka, E., 2002, This time with feeling: integrated model of trait and state effects on cognition and behavior, Applied Artificial Intelligence 16: 1–31.
Hudlicka, E., and Pfautz, J., 2002, Once more with feeling: augmenting recognition primed decision making with affective factors, in Proceedings of the 46th meeting of the HFES, Baltimore, MD.
Hudlicka, E., and Billingsley, J., 1999, Representing behavior moderators in military human performance models, in Proceedings of the 8th CGF-BR.
Hudlicka, E., 1997, Modeling behavior moderators in military HBR models, TR 9716, Psychometrix Associates, Inc., Lincoln, MA. (see also Pew and Mavor, 1998)
Humphreys, M. S., and Revelle, W., 1984, Personality, motivation, & performance, Psych. Review 91:153–184.
Isen, A. M., 1993, Positive affect and decision making, in Handbook of Emotions, Haviland, J. M., and Lewis, M., eds., The Guilford Press, New York.
Janis, I., 1972, Victims of Groupthink, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, MA.
Jervis, R., 1992, Political implications of loss aversion, Political Psychology 13: 187–204.
Jervis, R., 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Kahn, B. E., and Isen, A. M., 1993, The influence of positive affect on variety seeking among safe, enjoyable products, Journal of Consumer Research 20:257–270.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A., 1982, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Klein, G., 1997, RPD model: looking back, looking forward, in Naturalistic Decision Making, Zsambok, C., and Klein, G., eds., Lawrence Erlbaum Ass., Mahwah, NJ.
Klein, G., 1996, The effects of acute stressors on decision making, in Stress and Human Performance, Driskell, J. E., and Salas, E., Eds., Lawrence Erlbaum Ass., Mahwah, NJ.
Larsen, R. J., and Ketellar, T., 1991, Personality and susceptibility to positive and negative affect, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61:132–140.
LeDoux, J. E., 1992, Brain mechanisms of emotion and emotional learning, Current Opinion in Neurobiology 2: 191–197.
LeDoux, J. E., 1996, The Emotional Brain, Simon and Schuster, New York.
Lefebvre, V., 1977, The Structure of Awareness: Toward a Symbolic Language of Human Reflection, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA.
Leites, N., 1951, The Operational Code of the Politburo, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Lesser, I. O., Hoffman, B., Arquilla, J., Ronfeldt, D., Zanini, M., 1999, Countering the new terrorism, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
Levy, J. S., 2003, Political psychology and foreign policy, in Handbook of Political Psychology, Sears, D. O., Huddy, L., Jervis, R., eds., Oxford University Press, New York.
Lisetti, C. L., and Gmytrasiewicz, P., 2002, Can a rational agent afford to be affectless? Applied Artificial Intelligence 16: 577–609.
Loewenstein, G., and Lerner, J. S., 2003, The role of affect in decision making, in Handbook of Affective Sciences, Davidson, R. J., Scherer, K. R., Goldsmith, H. H., eds., Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Matthews, G., Derryberry, D., and Siegle, G. J., 2000, Personality and emotion: cognitive science perspectives, in Advances in personality psychology, Hampson, S. E., ed., Vol. 1, Routledge, London.
Matthews, G., and Dreary, I. J., 1998, Personality Traits, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Matthews, G., Zeidner, M., and Roberts, R., 2002, Emotional Intelligence: Science and Myth, MIT, Cambridge, MA.
MacLeod, C. and Hagan, R., 1992, Individual differences in the selective processing of threatening information, Behav. Res. Ther. 30: 151–161.
Meehl, P. E., 1954, Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction, University of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis, MN.
Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., Cooke, A. D. J., 1998, Judgment and decision making, Annual Review of Psychology 49: 447–477.
Michel, R. R., and Reidel, S. K., 1988, Effects of expertise and cognitive style on information use in tactical decision making, US ARI Report 806, US Army Research Institute, Alexandria, VA.
Mineka, S., and Sutton, S. K., 1992, Cognitive biases and emotional disorders, Psychological Science, 3: 65–69.
Minsky, M., 2004 , The Emotion Machine. (forthcoming)
Myerson, R., 1991, Analysis and Conflict, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Napier, R. W., and Gershenfeld, M. K., 1993, Groups: Theory and Experience, Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston, MA.
Orasanu, J., 1998, Stress and naturalistic decision making: strengthening the weak links, in Decision Making Under Stress: Emerging Themes and Applications, Flin, R., Salas, E., eds., Avebury, Aldersho, Hants, UK.
Pearl, J., 1986, Fusion, propagation, and structuring in belief networks, Artificial Intelligence 29: 241–288.
Persons, J. B. and Foa, E. B., 1984, Processing of fearful and neutral information by obsessivecompulsives, Behavior Res. Ther. 22: 260–265.
Pew, R. W. and Mavor, A. S., 1998, Representing Human Behavior in Military Simulations, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Post, J., and Shaw, E., 1999, Review of commander information and interaction profile: recommendations for operationalization, Political Psychology Associates, Ltd., Washington, DC.
Post, J., 1999, Hussein of Iraq: a political psychology profile, Political Psychology 13(4).
Revelle, W., 1995, Personality processes, Annual Review of Psychology 46: 295–328.
Scherer, K., 1993, Studying the emotion-antecedent appraisal process. Cognition and Emotion, 7:325-355
Simon, H., 1985, Human nature in politics: the dialogue of psychology with political science, American Political Science Review 79: 293–305.
Simon, H., 1967, Motivational and emotional controls of cognition , Psychological Review 74 :29–39.
Sloman, A., 2000, Architectural requirements for human-like agents both natural and artificial, in Human Cognition and Social Agent Technology, Dautenhan, K., ed., John Benjamins, Amsterdam.
Smith, C. A., and Kirby, L. D., 2001, On the Elicitation, differentiation, and organization of emotions, TR FS-01-02, AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA.
Streufert, S., and Streufert, S. C., 1981, Stress and information search in complex decision making: effects of load and time urgency, Technical Report 4, Office of Naval Research, Arlington, VA.
Tetlock, P. E., 1992, Good judgment in international politics: three psychological perspectives, Political Psychology 13: 517–539.
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, B., 1981, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science 211:453–458.
Tversky, A., and Kahneman, B., 1974, Judgments under uncertainty: heuristics and biases, Science 185: 1124–1131.
Velasquez, J. D., 1998, Modeling emotion-based decision-making, in Proceedings of “Emotional and Intelligent: The Tangled Knot of Cognition”, AAAI Fall Symposium Series, TR FS-98-03, AAAI Press, Menlo Park, CA.
Vertzberger, Y., 1990, The World in Their Minds, Stanford University Press, Palo Alto, CA.
Walker, S. G., 1995, Psychodynamic processes and framing effects in foreign policy decision-making: Woodrow Wilson’s operational code, Political Psychology 16: 697–717.
Williams, J. M. G., Watts, F. N., MacLeod, C., and Mathews, A., 1997, Cognitive Psychology and Emotional Disorders, John Wiley, NY.
Zsambok, C. E., 1997, Naturalistic decision making: where are we now? in Naturalistic Decision Making, Zsambok, C. E., and Klein, G. K., eds., Lawrence Erlbaum Ass., Mahwah, NJ.
Zsambok, C. and Klein, G. A., eds., 1997, Naturalist Decision Making, Lawrence Erlbaum Ass., Mahwah, NJ.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2006 Springer
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hudlicka, E. (2006). Modeling Effects of Emotion and Personality on Political Decision-Making. In: Trappl, R. (eds) Programming for Peace. Advances in Group Decision and Negotiation, vol 2. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4390-2_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-4390-2_14
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-4377-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-4390-1
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawHistory (R0)