Summary
In this article, we scrutinize basic issues concerning the interpretation of probability in the probabilistic safety concept. Using simple geotechnical design problems we demonstrate that the failure probability depends in an extremely sensitive way on the choice of the input distribution function. We conclude that the failure probability has no meaning as a frequency of failure. It may supply, however, a useful means for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest a number of alternatives, as interval probability, random and fuzzy sets, which serve the same purpose in a more robust way.
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Oberguggenberger, M., Fellin, W. (2005). The fuzziness and sensitivity of failure probabilities. In: Fellin, W., Lessmann, H., Oberguggenberger, M., Vieider, R. (eds) Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-26847-2_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-26847-2_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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