Economic Growth and Energy Consumption

Abstract

Generally the existence of a close connexion between economic growth and energy consumption is not disputed. In analysing and predicting the development of energy consumption, an attempt is therefore made to take this connexion into account (except for rough estimates using empirically determined or extrapolated growth rates for pro­duction and consumption). Appropriate forecasts and planning techniques have been developed and are regularly used for national calculations, as well as for economic groupings (regions) and the international economy as a whole. The techniques for analysis and prediction of the relationship between economic growth and energy con­sumption used internationally (and frequently applied in combination) fall into the following groups:

• forecasts based on the statistically proven correlations between energy consumption and parameters for the entire economy (national income, national product) see Appendix 1;

• application of current indicators of per capita energy consumption figures for the most industrially developed countries used in predictions for other parts of the world or for the entire world economy;

• derivation of future energy demand from the analysis and forecasting of structural changes in the national economy (sectoral method);

• selective analysis and forecasting of the development of energy-intensive processes of production;

• analysis and prediction of growth and structural changes in primary energy production/supply, the stages of energy processing, and the supply of energy inputs for consumption;

• analysis and prediction of world trade systems which affect energy.

Professor, Hochschule für Ökonomie, Berlin, GDR