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Does History have Useful Economics? Lessons from Europe’s Golden Age (1950–73)

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Contemporary Economic Issues

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Abstract

Between 1890 and 1992, the real GDP of Western Europe grew at an average annual rate of 2.3 per cent, or 1.7 per cent per annum per capita. This performance is roughly consistent with Kuznets’ expectations about the secular trend in ‘modern economic growth.’ If, however, as in Table 5.1, this past century is divided into four intervals, only the first (1890–1913) and the last (1973–92) exhibit growth rates that are roughly equal to the average for the whole period. The other two subsets are far off the average in a spectacular way: during 1913–50 the European economy distinctly underperformed while the opposite was the case in 1950–73 when product and productivity grew at rates never before or since experienced.

If we know what an economic miracle is, we ought to be able to make one. (R. E. Lucas, Jr, 1993).

This chapter draws on research done jointly with Nick Crafts for a project of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), London, the results of which are contained in Crafts and Toniolo (1996). My intellectual debt to Nick is enormous.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Italy

    Gianni Toniolo

  2. Duke University, USA

    Gianni Toniolo

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  1. Gianni Toniolo
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of Chicago, USA

    Yair Mundlak

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© 1998 International Economic Association

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Toniolo, G. (1998). Does History have Useful Economics? Lessons from Europe’s Golden Age (1950–73). In: Mundlak, Y. (eds) Contemporary Economic Issues. International Economic Association Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-26188-8_5

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