Abstract
This chapter describes the ways in which conflicts escalate through increases in the intensity of conflict and severity of tactics used to wage it. Escalation is driven by and reinforces three enduring changes: in people’s psychological states, in the way groups function—both internally and vis-à-vis each other—and in the structure and function of the larger, heterogeneous community. This chapter integrates first-hand accounts by Iraqi residents with the rich empirical literature on conflict escalation dynamics to map the trajectory of violence of Baghdad’s neighborhoods. It lays the conceptual groundwork for understanding conflict resilience as a process of managing conflict escalation, thus limiting the formation of sectarian militants within bounded areas, and preventing violent sectarian attacks from militant groups outside those areas.
“You cannot simultaneously prevent and prepare for war.”
Albert Einstein
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Notes
- 1.
Stein, Janice (1996), Ibid:192.
- 2.
The Najaf conflicts occurred in 2004, the first of which began when Coalition forces shut down al Hawza, the main Sadrist newspaper, and the second after Mahdi Army fighters attacked a US Marine patrol that they thought was on its way to arrest Muqtada al-Sadr.
- 3.
BBC Timeline: Iraq after Sadaam.co.uk. 2005. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4192189.stm.
- 4.
The Imam Ali Mosque is the third holiest site for Shi’a Muslims Imam Ali Mosque holds the remains of Ali ibn Abi Talib, cousin of Muhammad and first Imam according to followers of the Shi’a branch of Islam.
- 5.
Included among the victims was Ayatollah al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), which would become one of Iraq’s most powerful political parties.
- 6.
The day of Ashura on the 10th day of Muharram (the first month in the Islamic calendar) is a day of mourning for Shi’a Muslims commemorating the death of Muhammad’s grandson Husayn ibn Ali at the Battle of Karbala, and Sunnis have traditionally taken part in the days rituals, which include cooking and distributing food.
- 7.
Anthony Cordesman, Iraq’s Sectarian and Ethnic Violence and its Evolving Insurgency: Developments Through Spring 2007 (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, April 2007), online at www.comw.org/warreport/fulltext/0704cordesman.pdf, accessed July 2010.
- 8.
Interview, Baghdad 2010
- 9.
Communities with low response diversity are less able to cope with change because they lack multiple, redundant ways to solve problems.
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Carpenter, A.C. (2014). Conflict Escalation: The Sharpening of Sectarian Identity. In: Community Resilience to Sectarian Violence in Baghdad. Peace Psychology Book Series. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-8812-5_4
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