Energy Supply in Seven Regions of the World and International Oil Trade

Abstract

In the previous lecture we had examined the raison for viewing the energy problem in the global context and over a time-span of about 50 years. We had then gone into the IIASA methodology of estimating energy demand; depending upon the particular scenario chosen, we would arrive at a figure between 22 and 35 TWyr/yr for the entire world in the year 2030. The figures contrast with projections made in the early sixties in the US, lying between 60 and 100 TWyr/yr. There are yet other groups which say that one can do with 8 TWyr/yr with 8 billion people inhabiting the globe. So there is a range of values between 8 and 80 and I do think that is a detail that matters. At IIASA we have made the study in detail, so you can form your own judgement. For the purposes of this presentation let us keep in mind the range between 22 and 35 TWyr/yr. The question then arises: Would we have that much energy?

Version based on recorded transcript of the delivered lecture.