The Difficulty of Predicting Behaviour

Abstract

Businesses want to change behaviour but conventional market research processes are often poor at predicting it. Predicting behaviour is hard and the intention–behaviour gap is significant. Conventional market research methods make it even harder because the data is often poor quality, data is confused with insight, data collection fails to focus on the factors that drive behaviour and a lot of research is done to confirm existing biases rather than to prove or refute behavioural hypotheses. Rubinstein discusses the barriers to gaining a deeper understanding of consumer behaviour and makes the case for better research tools and methods that apply the principles of behavioural science. In particular, she discusses the importance of having a good theoretical framework to allow researchers to find out what people really do, not what they say they do.