Abstract
The Anthropocene poses profound challenges to the conservation of the Amazon rainforest, a global carbon reservoir. The forest’s unsustainable model of development, based on severe land use changes, and the effects of anthropogenic climate change may result in irreversible damage. In addition, crossing tipping points for the survival of the Amazon rainforest may trigger catastrophic climate change (CCC), which reflects the urgent need for a new development paradigm for the region. However, the prospects of the dieback of the Amazon as well as of a CCC scenario are generally overlooked in the academic and political debates. This chapter aims to fill this gap by exploring the link between irreversible environmental changes in the forest and potential CCC and by analyzing the challenge of sustainable development in the Brazilian Amazon, demonstrating how close a climate catastrophe might be; it then presents a novel development paradigm for the region. The revolutionary technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are proposed as central to this necessary paradigm shift. Because the Amazon rainforest is a global natural asset for avoiding CCC, Brazil is also advised to follow a diplomatic plan that upholds fundamental ecological principles for creating a safe space for humanity, thus attracting international investments to manage and preserve the forest.
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Notes
- 1.
Data from the Climate Action Tracker, available at http://climateactiontracker.org/global.html, accessed 24 January 2018.
- 2.
Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global, accessed 15 June 2017.
- 3.
El Niño events usually magnify global warming; the hottest years on record correspond to the occurrence of these events. The first half of 2016 experienced a strong El Niño and was the warmest year ever recorded (NOAA 2017).
- 4.
The others are the melting of Greenland’s ice shelf, Arctic sea-ice loss, permafrost and tundra loss, boreal forest dieback, Indian monsoon chaotic multistability, Atlantic deep water formation, Sahara greening, a West African monsoon shift, a climate change-induced ozone hole, a change in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation amplitude of frequency, changes in Antarctic bottom water formations, and the instability of the West Antarctic ice shelf (Abe et al. 2017).
- 5.
Natural scientists widely recognize the gravity of the climate risk; however, CCC has been off of most social sciences’ radar thus far.
- 6.
Data from NOAA, available at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global, accessed 21 January 2018.
- 7.
Interview with Professor Roberto Schaeffer (from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), 16 April 2017.
- 8.
Data from the Brazilian Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimate System (Sistema de Estimativas de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa—SEEG in Portuguese), using the Global Warming Potential metric provided by the IPCC in its Fifth Assessment Report (GWP–AR5), available at http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission, accessed 21 March 2017.
- 9.
Data from SEEG, available at http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission, accessed 21 March 2017.
- 10.
Net emissions using the GWP–AR5 metric.
- 11.
Data from SEEG, available at http://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission, accessed 21 March 2017.
- 12.
Data from the Brazilian State Institute for Space Research (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais—INPE in Portuguese), available at http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/prodes_1988_2016.htm, accessed 8 February 2017.
- 13.
Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística—IBGE in Portuguese), available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas-novoportal/economicas/contas-nacionais/9300-contas-nacionais-trimestrais.html, accessed 14 March 2017.
- 14.
- 15.
The Clean Development Mechanism “allows a country with an emission-reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Kyoto Protocol (Annex B Party) to implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries. Such projects can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, each equivalent to one tonne of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting Kyoto targets”—UNFCCC, available at http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/mechanisms/clean_development_mechanism/items/2718.php, accessed 15 May 2017.
- 16.
In Portuguese, Plano Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima (PNMC), available at http://www.mma.gov.br/estruturas/smcq_climaticas/_arquivos/plano_nacional_mudanca_clima.pdf, accessed 11 January 2017.
- 17.
Now being sued in the ten Latin American countries in which it was operating.
- 18.
See Brazil’s Growth Acceleration Plan (Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento—PAC in Portuguese), available at http://www.pac.gov.br/, accessed 24 May 2017.
- 19.
Available at http://www.mme.gov.br/web/guest/secretarias/petroleo-gas-natural-e-combustiveis-renovaveis/programas/renovabio/principal, accessed 27 December 2017.
- 20.
Data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística—IBGE in Portuguese), available at https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas-novoportal/economicas/contas-nacionais/9300-contas-nacionais-trimestrais.html, accessed 14 March 2017.
- 21.
Available at http://www.camara.gov.br/proposicoesWeb/fichadetramitacao?idProposicao=14562, accessed 24 May 2017.
- 22.
On the Fourth Industrial Revolution, see, for example, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/, accessed 14 March 2017.
- 23.
Interview with Professor Roberto Schaeffer (from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), 16 April 2017.
- 24.
It is worth noting, however, that technological development per se is an insufficient condition for protecting nature. Considering the severity of the global ecological crisis and the urgency of concrete answers, technology is a key part of solving the problem. Nevertheless, a paradigm shift in the way in which humanity relates to nature is absolutely essential; otherwise, instead of challenging the current development paradigm, the revolutionary technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution may convert into vehicles for reinforcing the prevailing consumption patterns and lifestyles. Discussing the new ethical and societal approach needed to protect the Amazon is beyond the scope of this chapter, whose focus relies only on the technological conditions for preserving the forest. On the ethical and societal conditions for conserving nature, see, for instance, Burke et al. (2016), Pereira (2017a, b), Pereira and Freitas (2017), and New Earth Politics: Essays from the Anthropocene, edited by Nicholson and Jinnah (2016).
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This work was funded by Portuguese National Funds through the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) in the framework of the project “UID/CPO/04627/2013”.
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Pereira, J.C. (2019). Reducing Catastrophic Climate Risk by Revolutionizing the Amazon: Novel Pathways for Brazilian Diplomacy. In: Sequeira, T., Reis, L. (eds) Climate Change and Global Development. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02662-2_10
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