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Evaluating US Dollar Index Movements Using Markov Chains-Fuzzy States Approach

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13th International Conference on Theory and Application of Fuzzy Systems and Soft Computing — ICAFS-2018 (ICAFS 2018)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 896))

Abstract

The U.S. dollar (USD) is one of the most used currencies in the world and also the most commonly used currency in international payments. The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the USD relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.’s most significant trading partners. Therefore, dollar index gives to market players and regulators more valuable information about the dollar value rather than the regional value among the currencies. Since it can be counted as a key indicator for the direction of the USD, the Central Banks are also closely monitoring the USDX. In recent years, large fluctuations in dollar value have caused US price instability to increase. The aim of this study is to classify the USDX with triangular fuzzy sets and evaluate the USDX movements using Markov Chain of the Fuzzy States method. The data used in this study consist of the monthly changes rate of the USDX over the January 2003 to May 2018 period. The movements of the monthly USDX have been analysed with the probabilistic transition matrix of the fuzzy states, then the steady condition of the changes rate of the USDX has been presented. These outcomes give significant information to the decision makers about the USDX movements. With this model, we are able to evaluate USDX movements and estimate the expected USDX for long and short term without missing any movements between boundaries of the states.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Near East University, 99138, Nicosia, TRNC Mersin-10, Turkey

    Berna Uzun

  2. Cukurova University, 01330, Adana, Turkey

    Ersin Kıral

Authors
  1. Berna Uzun
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  2. Ersin Kıral
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Berna Uzun .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Joint MBA Program, Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University, Baku, Azerbaijan

    Rafik A. Aliev

  2. Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Janusz Kacprzyk

  3. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada

    Witold Pedrycz

  4. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX, USA

    Mo. Jamshidi

  5. Department of Mechatronics, Near East University, Nicosia TRNC, Turkey

    Fahreddin M. Sadikoglu

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Uzun, B., Kıral, E. (2019). Evaluating US Dollar Index Movements Using Markov Chains-Fuzzy States Approach. In: Aliev, R., Kacprzyk, J., Pedrycz, W., Jamshidi, M., Sadikoglu, F. (eds) 13th International Conference on Theory and Application of Fuzzy Systems and Soft Computing — ICAFS-2018. ICAFS 2018. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 896. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-04164-9_51

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