Abstract
The contribution presents the analysis of the crisis phenomena in the Russian economy in 2014–2016 as several interrelated economic processes, the problem of potential recovery mechanisms and theoretical and methodological approaches to develop anti-crisis tools for a country dominated by the primary sector. The study is based on the use of comparative analysis of the main features of systemic financial crises in the countries of Southeast Asia in 1997–1999 and the Russian Federation in 2014–2016 and emphasizes the relevant models of the systemic financial crisis for the Russian Federation.
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Notes
- 1.
At the time of writing this contribution, the economic program of the Government of the Russian Federation remained unclear regarding the implementation of the task to ensure the rates of economic growth in the country higher than the average world set in the Address of the President V. V. Putin to the Federal Assembly.
- 2.
More specifically, it is necessary to pay attention to such an important fact that economic growth of the Russian Federation was in the 2000s in the face of rising oil prices, and high stable oil prices in 2012–2013 no longer gave a high rate of economic growth.
- 3.
- 4.
Is it possible to talk theoretically about any equilibrium path in the Russian transition economy in the post-Soviet period, taking into account the real demographic, investment and technological dynamics, the health and education situation around which the temporary shocks occur? Will the use of standard methods of accounting for the growth factor in such an economy be justified?
- 5.
This work did not take into account the issue on the boundaries if import substitution in the globalizing world economy. In the case of the Russian Federation, the issues of ensuring national security in the context of the possibility of financial and technical sanctions outside the UN Security Council and the WTO by certain developed countries and integration groups are important. But at the beginning of the events, the representatives of the largest Russian oil companies started complaining that the proposed policy of import substitution is ineffective and can paralyze the investment process, because they want to work on the most advances equipment that can be purchased only abroad in the foreseeable future. And in the general conceptual framework, the principle of comparative advantage as the basis of international socialization has not been refuted.
- 6.
Order of the Government of the Russian Federation of January 27, 2015 No 98r.
- 7.
Press release of the Bank of Russia of December 17, 2014 “On the measures of the Bank of Russia to maintain the sustainability of the Russian financial sector.” In principle, the raising interest rate is a standard tool for stabilizing the exchange rate in the face of its excessive volatility (flight), but in the very short term (Dornbusch 1976). A two-year period of high rates is unlikely to be in this category, and in such a situation there are additional negative effects, which in total can exceed the tax burden from the policy of high interest rates (Stiglitz and Greenwald 2003).
- 8.
The Bank of Russia. The overview of financial stability. IV quarter 2014 – I quarter 2015, M., 2015.
- 9.
The Russian judicial practice of 1998–1999 qualified such contracts as gambling, and foreign holders were explained that they got in Russian roulette, and if the lose, then they should not complain.
- 10.
International Monetary Fund, 2012, “The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows—An Institutional View,” (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2012/111412.pdf; International Monetary Fund, 2016, Capital Flows—Review of Experience with the Institutional View (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund), https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2016/110416a.pdf, Accessed 10 February 2018.
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Sherstnev, M.A. (2019). Have the Lessons About Crisis Processes in the Russian Economy Been Learned?. In: Ashmarina, S., Vochozka, M. (eds) Sustainable Growth and Development of Economic Systems. Contributions to Economics. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11754-2_3
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